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this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2023
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A coup is extremely unlikely, and here's why. The ruzzian army is mostly a collection of private armies funded and heavily influenced by oligarchs. These oligarchs manage to get along with eachother to cooperate on a battlefield under higher instruction, but there is still bickering, backbiting and bullshit behind the scenes.
A coup would require the majority of the army's oligarchs to get along with eachother, trust eachother and coordinate with eachother. Imagine Italian mafias from the 1960's and how difficult that would be to accomplish. That's about how childish, skittish and unintelligent these guys are and why a coordinated coup is not likely.
The good news is, though, a temper tantrum by one oligarch could get pootin killed. That is not off the table on any given week. Cross your fingers.