this post was submitted on 20 Jun 2026
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[โ€“] hansolo@lemmy.today 5 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Yeah, heard it all before, and I'm very familiar with the structural "curiosities" of the existing investment landscape.

Very few people correctly called the problems with 2007-2008. Not none, but few. And with soooooo many people mindlessly on the "it's a bubble!" bandwagon so early, a lot of accuracy and legitimacy is lost months or years beforehand for no other reason than why conspiracy theory people say "we'll get UFO disclosure this year!" Or "This year the Cubs/Arsenal/Red Sox will do it!" It's just the thing they say until one time they're right.

I'm not telling you it won't happen in a sense... But it's not going to happen how or when you think. IMO, you're looking at a partial stuttering effect maaaaaybe late winter like Q1 2027, and that's about it. There's to much alternate demand for everything LLM companies are already buying up to create a full and similar bubble like the Dot Com bubble.

[โ€“] Jiral@lemmy.world 1 points 6 minutes ago* (last edited 6 minutes ago)

I don't claim I know when the correction will happen but I wonder what massive alternative demand you see for the mountains of highly specialised server gpus in storage that will be obsolete in maybe 3 years time? For many of them that means likely before they will ever be turned on. The dotcom bubble created infrastructure that was, largely, not obsolete when the bubble bursted and made a lot of sense to salvage. That is a fundamental difference to inference infrastructure.