this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2026
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ASML shares plunge following reports of Chinese breakthrough in chip manufacturing. China has begun producing advanced chip manufacturing equipment, the very same that made ASML a major player (www.volkskrant.nl)
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[–] ravenaspiring@sh.itjust.works 10 points 17 hours ago (1 children)

Some of it translated

If China manages to produce the DUV machines itself, it could cost ASML billions of euros in the long run. In the last quarter, 14 % of the machines ASML sold went to China. The Veldhoven‑based manufacturer expects to earn 20 % of its revenue from China this year. If the revenue forecast, recently revised up from €43 billion to €45 billion for this year, materialises, that would correspond to roughly €9 billion.

Further testing

For now ASML does not seem to have to worry. Chinese technology is not yet as advanced and reliable as that of the Dutch company. Before mass production can start in China, the machines still need to be tested. This year China is reportedly starting production of five machines; a year later that number is expected to rise to twenty.

Although ASML appears to retain its lead for the moment, investors were spooked on Monday. The ASML share ended 8.5 % lower, the lowest level since early June. Dutch rivals Besi and ASM also fell sharply, losing almost 10 % and more than 7 % of their value respectively.

[–] prenatal_confusion@feddit.org 1 points 12 hours ago (2 children)

Huh? I thought that the current generation of fabs were embargoed via sanctions by the us. At least for "bad" actors.

When the us intelligence community announced that China had gotten hold of a recent machine asml vehemently denied that they ever sold one directly or that they could be moved without asml noticing. Not to speak of the know how needed to get it back up and running. I brlive them In these points.

This translation goes kinda against that. Anybody know how the situation above played out?

[–] ChairmanMeow@programming.dev 2 points 1 hour ago

The fabs in use for the latest chips are typically 1 to 2 generations behind, because it's expensive and takes a long time to get a new fab in place (these are extremely sensitive machines). Even if China could produce the exact fabs most in use today (which is already a little unlikely), ASML themselves are 2 gens ahead.

This will likely reduce prices on older gen chips though, and those were no slumps either.

[–] Verqix@lemmy.world 3 points 3 hours ago

It talks about DUV (deep ultra violet), last generation, not EUV (extreme ultra violet). So China is now a competitor on part of ASML's market where they held about 95% market share, not on their 100% top of the line models that can go even more detailed.

Since ASML DUV line has been around longer they worked on increasing stability and performance, so likely they won't be outperformed globally, yet. But China has extra incentive not to buy Dutch since they won't sell them EUV. This will have a noticable effect on their revenue, but it's speculation as to how much revenue they will loose unless China mandates their own product.

Also, ASML is increasing DUV capabilities beyond the laser input size + lenses with a bubble of water which changes the refractory index which lays on top of the wafer, no idea if that is in the Chinese products. If it isn't we are basically talking about the 4th gen machine. It's DUV, DUV + water, EUV (needing mirrors since lenses now absorb this light), EUV with increased height requirements for the clean rooms).