this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2026
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The Dutch government forced China to make these machines themselves by enforcing the embargo demanded by the US.
Now, China does exactly that. Then they scale up until they have strategic overproduction. Then the surplus gets thrown on the global market for cheap. Then ASML dies.
Goal: Prevent China from getting the tech.
Actual effect: The west becomes dependent on China for the tech.
Accurate. The West was in the Denial stage of Grief back then, believing that China could only copy, not innovate. We're already at Bargaining now.
As usual folks are blind to second order effects.