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Linux didn't just eat 10% of Windows market share, AI bots are inflating the numbers
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this post was submitted on 03 Aug 2026
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Home had 4 windows machines a year ago. Now 1 windows machine, a raspberry pi, and 4 linux machines... reckon theres still a real move under the data. Ai may be part but its not all or most.
Here's the truth of the matter. As a server, Linux runs the show. As a desktop, Linux is basically little league.
There is some growth, but it's not people getting fed up with microsoft. The real growth comes from Valve.
Despite it's apperance, SteamOS is considered a linux desktop, and it's driving growth on linux. I don't think it's up to 10%, considering 2 years ago it was at an all time high of 4%. But I can believe it's at 6%. And even that would be considered tremendous growth. 4% in 30 years, but 2% more in 2 more years? That's huge.
I keep seeing the same story about linux. People are gaming on steamos, or bazzite, and they have to keep a windows installation on the other partition because select games have anti-cheat that 100% does not work on linux.
But here's the better news. Console games are dying.
The people I've spoken to in real life (outside of Reddit and fediverse bubbles) are more interested in France changing their systems to Linux of all things, which rather surprised me. In their minds, that move gave it a lot of legitimacy.
Linux needs to change from "scary thing that sounds hard" to "easy thing that just works". If more big names adopt it that will help a lot. Projects like ZorinOS are also a great bridge.
The big thing about France going Linux is less the legitimaxy and more a state player entering the scene with the aim of creating a platfirm with all the tools needed in office settings and then some.
Well the reason that is big, is that regardless of the OS, whether it's windows, MacOS, or Linux, the concept of a desktop experience itself is shrinking.
Most people today that use desktops do so at work only. Meaning they don't control if it's Windows 11, Windows 10, Linux, or some company made propriatary OS (which, is most likely a form of linux). Doesn't matter. They come into work, use a computer that isn't theirs, to use an OS they have no say in.
With France using Linux, those people who don't know how to use a windows PC, will now be the people who don't know how to use a linux PC. But, like all things, they'll learn SOMETHING from it.
The major reason that Windows thrives is because businesses use it. When businesses use it, the employees use it. When the employees use it, they learn SOME things from it.
So when it comes time for them to buy a PC, they'll be firmiliar with linux, and windows becomes the foreign thing they've never used.
Thats the glass ceiling. People buy windows because they know windows. And they know windows because their school/job taught them windows.
But if their school/job teaches them linux instead, then that's what they'll know when they bring a PC home.
It's not a huge deal in itself. It becomes a huge deal when you consider the snowball effect.
Yeah I feel like very few people use desktops recreationally anymore… personally I enjoy just "existing" online on a computer. I like tinkering and just doing random stuff. That's why I use Linux exclusively now, because Windows makes it very hard for me to use the computer the way I want to
If you had said "Enterprise desktop" I'd kinda agree. Depends on how you define the leagues.
I believe there's growth in the "digital sovereignty" movement as well. Likely more than gaming.
France is going to change that, at least for everything needed by state and public IT systems. They are going for full transition, including software (communication, cloud, office application, databases and business tools etc)