this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2026
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Destroying a few dozen satellites would probably kickstart a Kessler síndrome.
You'd never get Kessler syndrome at Starlink altitudes.
Starlink satellites orbit at around 550km, and get dragged by the little bit of atmosphere that is at that altitude. Each collision might make more debris, but the conservation of momentum means that any debris that gets kicked to a lower orbit will probably burn up on the atmosphere while any debris that gets kicked to a higher altitude will be smaller mass and therefore cause less damage on the next collision after that.
Collisions can still happen, but the runaway conditions where debris begets debris won't happen at those orbital velocities and altitude.
Maybe, but not guaranteed. Starlink satellites aren't very big (meaning not very large pieces if they blow up). Additionally, Starlink satellites have active avoidance systems that can "dodge" debris to a degree (its slow, but space is big). Lastly, because the pieces would be small, they'd experience more atmospheric drag and fall back to Earth faster. Whether that means weeks instead of years, I don't know.
It's hard to predict the outcome in such a chaotic event but starlink alone already does 100k+ collision avoidance maneuvers each year (can't remember the exact number but is more than one every 2 minutes). It's highly unlikely that we would be able to accurately track the newly formed debris of dozens of satellites blowing up and adjust the orbit of (potentially) hundreds of satellites in a few minutes.