Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

“As the Strait remains closed, producers are shutting down, and this isn’t like turning off a tap that can be quickly restarted,” Krugman explained. “There’s apparently a real nonlinearity here: a two-week closure of the Strait has much more than twice the adverse impact on global oil supply as a one-week closure. If this goes on for multiple weeks... oil prices, which retreated slightly off their highs early this morning, could go much higher.”

I post this less so because I think THIS is the moment of collapse, though it certainly may be, and more because it is a real world measurement of fragile global systems are when they depend on fossil fuels.

THIS is why we need green energy, fossil fuel infrastructure is far too brittle.

also see https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/09/iran-war-oil-prices-stagflation-global-economy

The oil shock resembles those seen in the 1970s, when conflict in the Middle East resulted in surging prices and dragged advanced economies into persistent slumps, according to David Bassanese, chief economist at BetaShares. “If oil does stay above $100 a barrel and this disruption continues, then we may face a stagflationary moment in the first half of the year: weak growth, but central banks unable to do much about it because of the high level of inflation,” he said.

another related, timely article https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-09/us-israel-iran-war-oil-price-surge-share-markets/106432166

Rabobank's senior global strategist Michael Every believes a critical mass of traders are finally starting to appreciate the "quite terrifying" threat America and Israel's Iran adventure poses to the global economy and the companies that rely on it for their profits.

"This is now starting to look like a potential combination of the 1973 post-Yom Kippur War oil shock, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War commodity shock, and the 2020-21 COVID supply chain shock," he warns.

"The longer this goes on, the more exponential the damage becomes, in a domino effect, which is exactly what oil is now showing to a market that saw some takes last week that 'things could be a lot worse'. Well, now they are."