For the S&P 500 (SPX) index options, the
5000 strike put is a "tail-risk" hedge that has seen significant pricing shifts as market volatility climbed from February into March 2026.
1. SPX 5000 Put Option Trading Range
The following estimates reflect the premium for the March 2026 monthly expiration (the "disaster" hedge referenced in recent headlines).
| Date | S&P 500 (SPX) Level | 5000 Put Est. Range | Market Sentiment | |
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| | Today (Mar 11) | ~6,776 | $4.50 – $6.50 | Disaster pricing active. VIX near 25. | | March 2nd | ~6,882 | $1.20 – $2.10 | Conflict escalation. Initial panic spike. | | Feb 11th | ~6,941 | $0.05 – $0.15 | "Cheap" protection. SPX near ATHs. |
2. Other High-Variance Strike: SPX 6400 Put
The 6400 strike is currently the primary "near-tail" focal point, representing a potential ~5.5% drop from current levels. It has shown much higher daily variance than the 5000 strike because it is closer to being "at-the-money."
- Today (Mar 11): Traded in a wide range of $32.00 – $48.50.
- March 2nd: Traded in a range of $18.00 – $24.00.
- Mid-February: Traded as low as $3.50 – $6.00.
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3. Why the 5000 Strike Matters
While the 6400 strike has more "dollar" variance, the 5000 strike's percentage increase is what substantiates the "disaster" headline.
- Premium Growth: The 5000 put has increased by roughly 4,000% (from ~$0.10 to over $4.50) in just one month.
- Implied Volatility (IV): The IV for these deep out-of-the-money puts has moved into the 89th percentile, meaning the market is charging a massive premium specifically for a "black swan" event.
MarketWatch
March 2 is significant because it was the first trading day after the war started, and the "how it started" point vs how its going now.