While U.S. officials say American warships will escort oil tankers through the strait, the Navy has reportedly avoided deploying vessels directly into the narrow 21 mile waterway, citing security risks. Iranian drones and anti ship missiles could turn it into a high risk “kill zone.”

Military analysts say protecting shipping would require heavy force, potentially two warships per tanker, or around ten ships to escort a convoy of five to ten vessels. Continuous drone surveillance and strikes on Iranian coastal launch sites would also be necessary.

Experts estimate the operation could require thousands of personnel, significant funding, and months of sustained deployment. Even then, results would be limited. Intelligence assessments suggest tanker traffic could fall to roughly 10 percent of normal levels, leaving more than 600 vessels delayed in the Gulf for months.

A larger escalation, including strikes on Iranian territory or a ground operation against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, would require massive troop levels and could become a prolonged conflict.

Even full coastal control would not eliminate the threat, as Iran possesses long range missiles and drones capable of striking vessels far from the strait.

Industry analysts say normal traffic, over 100 ships per day, would only resume if hostilities end and Iran provides security guarantees. Without that, insurers and shipping firms may refuse to operate in the region.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/177740