Thought this was an interesting piece of analysis from the folks over at Oilprice.com, an industry publication focused on investors and oil execs. TLDR is they are suggesting 200$ per barrel oil is realistic based on the damage being done to energy infrastructure and Iran's ability to restrict oil traffic.

Note embedded link is to the archive.is version.

[–] o_d@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 6 hours ago

As of writing, the price of a barrel of oil from Oman is $153. This is much closer to reality than Brent Crude which, as I understand it, is a futures contract and vulnerable to market manipulation and speculation. $200 per barrel isn't that far off. Even if the war ended tomorrow, we could still see this happen since it takes time to ramp up production again and a lot of infrastructure has already been damaged or completely destroyed.