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Shoigu's Statements Contrasted: March '22 vs Sept '23
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this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2023
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Wouldn't Russia shatter if they were fully defeated by Ukraine? I mean, if they withdraw, Ukraine won't stop before they get Crimea back, and that would be a resounding defeat for the "second army of the world". Considering how nationalistic Russia became, how would it survive such a defeat?
They can withdraw, delay, mobilize more people, wait for the West to get tired, Trump to get elected, etc.
Ukraine needs constant supply of money and equipment from the West in order to survive. Their economy is fucked and they cant really produce the military equipment needed to fight Russia. What will happen if Trump gets elected? Or Le Pen? Or if opposition parties in the West, start using the cost of the war for propaganda?
This is why Ukraine is under immense pressure to get results out of the counteroffensive.
Of course! I was reacting to the idea of Russia withdrawing. Wouldn't that mean they leave Ukraine? That would be devastating to them.
I bet Russia is indeed betting on time. Well, actually they need to hold until Ukraine settle for a cease fire, or supplies from the west stop coming.
They withdrew from Kherson pretty successfully. They dont have to withdraw all the way to Russia. They just need to prepare new defenses and fall back where they can hold with fewer losses.
I would imagine Ukraine would not stop the war of they withdraw anything. Each victory of Ukraine is a powerful moral boost for them.
What Russia is doing right now is the right move for them: making the advance of Ukraine as slow and painful as possible. Until they get discouraged or west support falls out. But they need to make each km of progress difficult, or both the west and Ukraine will see that it is actually possible to make Russia withdraw its forces.