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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2023
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I have a hard time believing this, but if Wagner/Prigozhin goes rouge, at the moment when Ukraine have started their counteroffensive, that could have massive consequences for Russia. I wonder whether Ukraine would allow them to "go free" if they decide to switch sides en masse?
I would be happy to see every Russian in Ukraine turn a nice shade of rouge.
I meant what I said! If Prigozhin goes rouge his new appearance could woo the people and benefit him massively in the Russian presidential election, potentially causing a major upset and leading to the end of Putins rain.
And the beginning of Putin's sun?
I think you meant "The beginning of Putins Son", which is secretly Prigozhin.
This is how conspiracies are born.
They're actually birthing new conscripts? That's fucked up!
Would that be Putin's ... purple rain?
I think you meant rogue, not rouge. "Rouge" is the French word for "red".
Well, in that case I don't understand what you said. I mean, red is a nice color to wear if you dare to wear it, but I don't know how it could help Prigozhin in any way.
Exactly!
Even if Wagner just leaves and takes it's troops back to Africa, it will be a major loss for Russia.
There's no way Ukraine would ever let them switch sides though. Maybe the Free Russia Legion would work with them to carve out some territory for themselves in Russia, but the only think Ukraine would allow them to do is surrender for jail time.
Rosguardia has hundreds of thousands of internal soldiers. Assuming their allegiance is to the MoD (and at this point there is no way of knowing), I don't see how Prigozhin could successfully stage the ousting.
If he was really trying to help the Ukrainians the most effective decision would probably be to attack the rear of the Russian lines to allow Ukrainian forces to come through. Wagner units have been off the front for about a month so I don't think it really has any effect on Ukraines ability to break through the lines without the above scenario happening, but nothing Prigozhin has said leads me to think he'd help Ukraine, as he also stated he plans to return to the Frontlines to help defend the motherland against the west after ousting Shoigu.
I definitely think Prigozhins "easiest" way to power would be to help the Ukrainians break through and encircle a large portion of the Russian army.
I may be very wrong, but I think that such a large proportion of the Russian armed forces and material are in Ukraine now, that if they were to be encircled and lose decisively (not that I think this is immediately likely) the Rosguardia would have a hard time. It doesn't help to have hundreds of thousands of soldiers if you don't have any heavy equipment, communication systems or command structure. Additionally, Prigozhin appears to be in good favour among quite a few Russians, so I wouldn't bet against some of them joining him if he were to try something.
But given what you're saying, the above seems like a pipe dream ^but-I-want-to-dream-that-this-can-end-suddenly-and-quickly.^