Your point about the screenplay reminds me of one of my biggest pet peeves with armchair commenters on AI these days.

Yeah, if you hop on ChatGPT, use the free version, and just ask it to write a story, you're getting crap. But using that anecdotal experience to extrapolate what the SotA can do in production is a massive mistake.

Do professional writers just sit down at a computer and write out page after page into a final draft?

No. They start with a treatment, build out character arcs, write summaries of scenes, etc. Eventually they have a first draft which goes out to readers and changes are made.

To have an effective generative AI screenplay writer you need to replicate multiple stages and processes.

And you likely wouldn't be using a chat-instruct fine tuned model, but rather individually fine tuned models for each process.

Video game writing is going to move more into writing pipelines for content generation than it is going to be writing final copy. And my guess is that most writers are going to be very happy when they see the results of what that can achieve, as they'll be able to create storytelling experiences that are currently regarded as impossible, like where character choices really matter to outcomes and aren't simply the illusion of choice to prevent fractalizing dialogue trees too much early on.

People are just freaking out thinking the tech is coming to replace them rather than realizing that headcounts are going to remain the same long term but with the technology enhancing their efforts they'll be creating products beyond what they've even imagined.

Like, I really don't think the average person - possibly even the average person in the industry - really has a grasp of what a game like BG3 with the same sized writing staff is going to look like with the generative AI tech available in just about 2-3 years, even if the current LLM baseline doesn't advance at all between now and then.

A world where every NPC feels like a fleshed out dynamic individual with backstory, goals, and relationships. Where stories uniquely evolve with the player. These are things that have previously been technically impossible given resource constraints and attempts to even superficially resemble them ate up significant portions of AAA budgets (i.e. RDR2). And by the end of the next console generation, they will have become as normative as things like ray tracing or voiced lines are today.

That's a win win all around.