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this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2023
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Reddit Migration
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### About Community Tracking and helping #redditmigration to Kbin and the Fediverse. Say hello to the decentralized and open future. To see latest reeddit blackout info, see here: https://reddark.untone.uk/
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reddit is going to continue on just fine lmfao, unreal how confused some people are
Reddit will be fine in the short term sure, but anyone who actually gave enough of a shit to put in the effort needed for it to work well have left or stated that they will no longer do anything more than the bare minimum. Reddit will still be around for a while, but it will never be the same place it was, and eventually will just become irrelevant as it's overrun with trolls and scammers. I give it 3 - 5 more years before it disappears without fanfare and no one will care.
It'll be fine in the same way Facebook is fine. It'll have users, and it'll maybe even make money. But Facebook is filled with negativity, regurgitated content, aggressive monetisation and an ever-increasing lack of personal connection.
I logged into Facebook for something last week for the first time in a long time. 14 out of the first 20 posts in my feed - so 70% - were "suggestions" or "promotions". It wasn't stuff posted by people I know or pages I've liked, and it wasn't even stuff that people I know or pages I've liked had interacted with. It was adverts and shitty, lowest-common-denominator content that I had no interest in.
Facebook isn't dead but it might as well be as far as I'm concerned. It's no longer enjoyable, interesting or useful to me. And Reddit is going down that same path.
Facebook is nowhere near as dead as you think it is. It is still the best place for local groups and many niche hobbyist groups. I really don't want reddit to be another version of that, 1 crappy social site is enough. Also you're missing a key differentiating factor: facebook has actual paid content moderators.
I don't think reddit will die, at least not right away (remember, digg shut down finally in 2018).
Best case scenario is they hemorrhage users, fail ipo, and then join the fediverse. I say this because joining will create a bridge for new users to come here.
Worst case scenario is they become like twitter. which is possible.
My money is on them trying to sell to Microsoft or Google for ai training, and keeping their api private.
You're making a great point about Facebook. It's still insanely popular among older and more rural Americans. I guess these are populations that would be more isolated without it and still see the value in participating. One example: I have a 21 year old niece who is on it 24/7, but then again she is a hour's drive from the nearest Walmart and and her parents. Three hundred miles from her bestie. She's two-thousand-ish miles away from me. She has my number, but she prefers Messenger to text.
It's also good for community groups, online garage sales, in memoriam pages, and the like. Some businesses like to use it instead of having a proper website, probably due to zero cost of hosting and familiarity of use.*
Reddit never fit naturally with any of those, but I'm sure it will find a niche of users in the same way.
*I'm sure there are other dynamics worldwide where Facebook might also be a valuable tool. These are just the first few examples I can think of in the US.
While Reddit might be fine it also could go down the same path as Yahoo, AIM, or Twitter. Either dying a slow death or ending up a shell of what it once was.
Hell even Slashdot still limps along, a shell of what it what it was before everyone moved from it to Reddit. For large ranges of "fine" I'm sure Reddit will fall into some category for some time at least.
I’m not contributing much anymore with Apollo gone. The official mobile app doesn’t pull me in like Apollo did. I may be in the minority.