this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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Hmm I wonder where does attack roll distribution peaks, better choose the number accordingly
The roll to hit is a single die, so if the attacker could hit or miss on a regular (1-19) roll, the best outcome is to block the lowest number, AC+6. The extra number gives no benefit against an attacker that couldn't roll that number on a (modified) ordinary roll, and gives a 5% miss chance against an attacker that could.
If the attacker has such a high chance to hit that they can roll AC+15 on a regular die, but cannot roll AC+6, you're in trouble - they'll basically never miss.
Since the result will be generally a high roll, you'll proc the defense more often if you keep the target AC low - a d10 roll of 1.
So if you've normally got an AC of 15, then you'll want a target AC of 15+1+5=21, which nearly everything can hit.