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this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2023
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Russia will absolutely not invade Finland, even if it weren't part of NATO and the EU.
Which is great news for the Russian soldiers who are going to be stationed there. Not going to the meat grinder instead.
You're probably right, but that was exactly what people were commenting while russian troops were officially still just doing an exercise near the Ukrainian border. Putin is a madman and capable of unexpected crazy behaviour
I suppose, but attacking NATO would be a whole other level of crazy. The biggest winner there would be Ukraine.
If Russia triggers article 5 Ukraine will be a smoking crater just like the rest of the planet
Well no actually. US intelligence was basically telling the entire world that the invasion was 100 percent going to happen. How do you not remember that?
I don't because idk who they told it to. Not me (I was just concerned it would happen by myself) and obviosly not the many people who were still commenting it would never happen while russian soldiers had already been reported crossing the Ukrainian border
Didn't they do that twice?
Only once that I know of, and that was arguably a stalemate even though the USSR took part of Karelia. The Finns also learned their lesson there, and today (enormous network of bunkers, largest artillery force in Europe, F-35s on order, military reserve is 20% of the population) they are ready.
Plus, of course, they are EU members (which has a mutual defense clause) and NATO (whose Article 5 is well-known)
It was like one war with a pause in the middle of it rather than two distinct conflicts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuation_War
OK, that's the "one" I was thinking of. I was confused as to what the other might be, since Finland and the USSR were born at the same time.
Correct. You have to be utterly delusional to think otherwise. This is just Putin posturing for domestic consumption.
That's what I thought about the threats to invade Ukraine. It was such a stupid idea that surely someone as intelligent as Putin wouldn't do it. But then he did. We can no longer assume he'll act rationally.
That doesn't mean he is going to invade, but it does mean we need to take his threat seriously.