In almost every case, ~85% of GOP study participants voted along party lines, whereas only 67% of democrats did... making the "majority" result the GOP-aligned one. I think the extreme nature of identity politics in the last few years especially is really making it hard to take any poll results like this particularly seriously.
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I'd take this with a grain of salt. Mark Penn, chairman of The Harris Poll and one of three who supervised this poll, is a known Trump supporter who believes in the Democratic "deep state" conspiracy theory. Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX and the second person supervising this poll, tries to appear bipartisan in public, is a little more discreet but is also a Trump supporter. I gave up looking up stuff on these people cuz I feel gross now. Dunno how The Harris Poll and HarrisX are affiliated. Yeah this poll is b.s.
The Harris Poll and one of three who supervised this poll, is a known Trump supporter
I figured it was something like that. If anybody besides Treason Trump did the things he did, they would already be in jail.
It's silly to judge a polling outfit solely on the politics of their CEO.
FWIW, 538 gave Harris a "B" grade with 83% accuracy in 2020. If anything, Harris seemed to overestimate Biden's support (eg they predicted Trump would lose FL and NC).
Their accuracy of their election prediction is separate from their polling bias. I mentioned in a higher comment that their polling technique has been described as "when Harvard Poll meets Fox News" and that they "cherrypick to advance agendas"
This article does talk about "When a Harvard poll meets Fox News", but it's criticizing Fox News's distortion of a Harris poll, not the poll itself (i.e., "How Fox News and conservative media outlets are using a recent Harvard Poll to support their own election narrative.")
And Penn is actually the one complaining about those who "cherry pick to advance agendas". He specifically objected to Fox cherry picking his poll to say that voters prefer a "law and order" candidate like Trump.
Mark J. Penn ’76, a visiting lecturer at Harvard University and leading pollster for the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, explains that Fox News’s claim that poll results reflected a positive response to “law and order” messaging “is not the full context of the story.” “Look, articles like this take things out of context,” he continues. “They’re written to make a political point. That’s not the whole picture.”
Penn, a former Crimson news editor, believes that the correct analysis of the poll is that “BLM and the police, frankly, have much better images than” both Biden and Trump. The poll finds that 67 percent of respondents view the police either favorably or very favorably, and 51 percent of respondents view Black Lives Matter favorably or very favorably. In comparison, 44 percent and 48 percent of respondents had a favorable or somewhat favorable view of Trump and Biden, respectively.
“I didn’t cooperate with that article,” Penn says when asked about his thoughts on the Fox News story. “It’s unfortunate that people cherry pick [the poll] and use it to advance agendas.
Thank you for showing where that phrase was used in writing, but that is not the only time he has been pointed out for the irony of his juxtaposition. He is a former pollster for the Clintons that became very "trumpy" (to use Politico's word) and instead of being on all news shows the only one that would bring him on is Fox.
The thing about polling is that one can write the questions in order to get the answers they want or need and data can be extracted to portray what is needed. Without the raw data, we really don't know what was asked or how the data portrayed was pulled.
Prison for the rest of his miserable life.
Prison for the rest of his life, to set a precedent that Nobody is above the law. And that all conmen deserve punishment.
I haven't seen any reason to trust polling since 2016.
I never get directly asked who I'm voting for in polls, it's always "favorability" bullshit.
I hate all of them, but I'm not voting for fascist or fascist-lite.
Polls in 2016 were more accurate than 2012, but almost everyone except 538 drew the wrong conclusions: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
Regarding President Joe Biden, Trump’s disinformation campaign against him and his son, Hunter, also appears to have taken root in voters’ minds. The majority of respondents, 55 percent, said the FBI is “not really investigating” corruption allegations against Biden while 57 percent believe Biden “took a $5 million bribe” while serving as vice president, despite no evidence of that occurring.
this shows you who they polled.
53%? I'm wondering what questions were asked, and how. For example, would they want Trump pardoned if the alternative is being sent to a maximum security prison? Minimum security? House arrest? How many of them understand the seriousness of the charges? Should all people accused of those crimes be pardoned? If not, then why is an ex-President different, and what does that say about our justice system?
There is no way that 53% is correct. Is everyone really that fucking dumb
It's the people they poll. Do you have a landline for them to call? Do you answer calls from randos on your cell?
Me either.
They're polling a bunch of ancient people sitting around watching daytime TV.
Harris Polls has been described as " when Harvard Poll meets Fox News" and "cherrypicks to advance agendas". Just like when looking into bias of news sources, it's important to look into the bias of polling sources.
It seems like you're thinking of this article, which is talking about Fox News misrepresenting a Harris poll, and the Fox "journalists" cherry-picking to fit an agenda. That article isn't criticizing Harris, which mostly over exaggerated Democrat victory in the 2020 elections. Not saying they're not biased, but it seems like you may have misunderstood a source?
I replied to a different comment linking that article, so I'll copy it here:
Thank you for showing where that phrase was used in writing, but that is not the only time he has been pointed out for the irony of his juxtaposition. He is a former pollster for the Clintons that became very "trumpy" (to use Politico's word) and instead of being on all news shows the only one that would bring him on is Fox.
The thing about polling is that one can write the questions in order to get the answers they want or need and data can be extracted to portray what is needed. Without the raw data, we really don't know what was asked or how the data portrayed was pulled.
I mean, I tend to bet on the average person's stupidity. So I'd answer yes?
Dems continuously win the popular vote, which means 0 Republicans would say no to this and some Dems would say yes? I'm not buying that.
they sampled an incredibly small sample size. It's extremely easy to get fucked up results from assuming that you can make a poll representative of Americans as a whole. Like. where I live... most people in the state want him locked up (or you know. burned at the stake.) But, you go an hour out the cities and even the democrats there would be likely to express some hesitancy. Because it's trump country out there.
and that assumes the poll wasn't meant to get this result (for example polling in ways that get maybe more conservative democrats. or people simply lying and saying they're democrats.)
Actually the sample size checks out. I love it when people see "Smol number not as big as big number, therefore sample size bad" and I am going to pull a very elitist argument here and say that people at Harvard University likely know more about polling than you do, just saying.
56% of Americans think former President Donald Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race
The section that says "Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income,
employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online." kinda sticks out to me, too.
That's how all reputable election polling was done in 2020. For example, if you take a random sample that happens to be 52% men and 48% women, it is completely appropriate to overweight the women's responses to match their actual percentage in the US, 50.5%.
In fact, in the 2020 election there was a bunch of Trump supporters who had the same doubts as you, and they would "unskew" polls with 52% men responding to give them 52% of the final weighting. Lo and behold, their "unskewed" polls showed Trump in the lead. But the proof of the method is in the election results...
Yeah, that admission kind of makes me pause when considering the results. There should have been a page of the published poll that better described how this was taken. For instance, doing just a LAN line poll skews poll results considerably.
But it's only the beginning of the fed case against Trump, so I'm sure opinion will change.
A sample size of 2090, as in this study, is large enough to bring the margin of error down to 2%.
Furthermore, there is no need to speculate about who they polled, because this information is available. Questioning the results of the poll is as unreasonable as 2020 Trump supporters questioning every poll that showed Biden with an advantage.
2090 is not a small sample size.
That's a normal sample size for polls. Unfortunately, people are this dumb.
Most polls are conducted with a political agenda, so they don’t really care…. Especially because it’s incredibly uncommon for people to actually look.
“This survey was conducted online within the United States from June 14-15, 2023 among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. The poll was supervised by pollsters: Mark Penn (Chairman, The Harris Poll) Dritan Nesho (CEO, HarrisX) Stephen Ansolabehere (Professor and CAPS Director Emeritus, Harvard University)”
2000 something sample size is pretty small, and the weighted and propensity score is “intriguing”.
Harris polls are supposed to be very reputable. But considering this guy couldn't even win the popular vote, how the hell do more than half of people want him pardoned?
Well I 100% want to see him go to fucking jail.