this post was submitted on 06 Feb 2025
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Global News

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Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances


Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.

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[–] Rocketpoweredgorilla@lemmy.ca 32 points 6 days ago (5 children)

Don't panic? I think a lot of people may be rooting for the asteroid by the time it gets here.

[–] Maiq@lemy.lol 11 points 6 days ago

I've got my towel, I'm ready.

[–] SARGE@startrek.website 6 points 6 days ago

by the time it gets here

Can we move the timetable up?

[–] jol@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

I mean, think of all the jobs it will bring. And at least asteroids will never lie to you.

[–] Red_October@lemmy.world 3 points 6 days ago

By the time it gets here? How about right now.

[–] TacoButtPlug@sh.itjust.works 3 points 6 days ago

Maybe it will finally uncover some rare earth

[–] P00ptart@lemmy.world 10 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It's too small and too far out for it to matter. It's 7 years out, low likelihood, and too small to do anything but erase a city. We have civilization-ending threats at home.

[–] echodot@feddit.uk 2 points 5 days ago

It'll do more than wipe out a city. If it hits in a populated area it'll take out an entire region, a city in all its surrounding accoutrements + a fair amount of peripheral land.

[–] burgersc12@mander.xyz 7 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

I know who I'm voting for in 2032, still disappointed he lost in 2024

[–] sznowicki@lemmy.world 5 points 6 days ago (2 children)

What are the odds that if it hits the Earth it would hit Moscow? Asking for my friends.

[–] buffysummers@sh.itjust.works 9 points 6 days ago (3 children)
[–] Xavienth@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 6 days ago

I'm confused how they can be so certain where it will hit but not if. I would think basically that while side of the planet is within the region of uncertainty. I guess it's probably because they can define the orbit in a plane rather precisely, but within that plane, other axes are more difficult to get precision numbers on.

[–] MNByChoice@midwest.social 1 points 6 days ago

Pretty sure I am in the "survived the initial impact, now get to suffer."

[–] jol@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I guess it depends of the point of reference. I would say that looks pretty close to Russia.

[–] SolacefromSilence@fedia.io 1 points 6 days ago

Impact Risk Corridor: The impact risk corridor for 2024 YR4, which is the region of Earth along which a potential impact could occur, extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia

[–] BrikoX@lemmy.zip 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

The same of it hitting Washington D.C.