President Trump insists that U.S. strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment program this summer, but regional officials and analysts have become less convinced in the months since, and they warn another outbreak of war between Israel and Iran is only a matter of time.
The 2015 deal intended to limit Iran’s nuclear enrichment expired last month. Tough sanctions on Iran have been restored. Negotiations on its nuclear program appear to be dead, at least for now. And Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, enough to make 11 nuclear weapons, is either buried under rubble, as Iran claims, or has been spirited away to a safe place, as Israeli officials believe.
Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told The Financial Times last week that the organization believes that the majority of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium survived the war, but that its status is unclear without inspections. He estimated that Iran has roughly 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which is close to weapons grade.
Iran also appears to be continuing to work on a new enrichment site known as Pickaxe Mountain. It has refused to give international inspectors access to that site or any other suspected nuclear sites other than those already declared.
The result is a dangerous stalemate — with no negotiations, no certainty over Iran’s stockpile, no independent oversight. And many in the Gulf believe that makes another Israeli attack on Iran almost inevitable, given Israeli officials’ long-held view that Iran’s nuclear program is an existential threat.
Iran is more isolated from the West than it has been in decades. Arab regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have enhanced their influence over Washington and Mr. Trump, partly through economic ties and partly through their willingness to work with the United States to try to find a lasting settlement to the Gaza war. The new president of Syria is headed to the White House on Monday to seek American support. Syria had been a strategic ally of Iran’s under the Assad government that collapsed last year.
At the same time, those regional powers are working to preserve their own relationships with Iran, said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. They do not want another regional war, and they respect Iran’s ability, however weakened, to create instability through its own military forces and through proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, the Persian Gulf and elsewhere, she said.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Tuesday that American hostility to Iran is deep-seated.
“America’s arrogant nature accepts nothing but surrender,” he said in an address to mark the anniversary of the takeover of the American Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979.
His remarks seemed designed to block any new negotiations with the United States on Iran’s nuclear program.
Last week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Iran said that Washington had offered “unacceptable and impossible conditions,” including direct talks and a complete, verifiable halt to Iran’s enrichment of uranium. He again rejected direct talks and an end to enrichment.
But he repeated that Iran remained open to indirect talks under certain conditions. They include a guarantee of no further military attacks or economic pressure and compensation for war damage, demands Washington is unwilling to accept. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mr. Araghchi also warned Israel of “dire consequences” for any future attack.