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The paywall is strong with this one! I wasn't able to get around it.
Everything I have read in the past has indicated that until something changes with Turkiye's overseas voters, Erdogan will remain in power. It doesn't seem like he needs a majority at home.
How many overseas voters does turkey have?
Almost 3 million
According to this article (and others from their last election) about 3 million. That's only 5% of domestic voters, but if you look at how close the lection was and how Erdogan cultivates the diaspora, it matters.
I don't think Turkiye is alone in allowing expats to vote, but once folks receive citizenship in a new country this seems problematic IMO.