Firstly, it has come to be known that while Kiev was hammered with an assortment of ballistic and cruise missiles, not to mention drones, the Oreshnik did not actually strike Kiev itself, but rather the neighboring Bila Tserkva airbase not far away from the capital city. This was stated by several sources, both Ukrainian and Russian.
FighterBomber believes the Oreshnik cannot be used on Kiev because it’s not exactly a precision weapon. We’ve analyzed the possibilities before and arrived at the likelihood that the Oreshnik submunitions are not independently maneuverable themselves, but are rather aimed kinetically by their “bus” in outerspace like most nuclear MIRV warheads. This means they are unlikely to achieve true precision on the order of 5-10 meters CEP like Iskanders, Kalibrs, etc.
Granted, that’s not to say the Oreshnik wouldn’t destroy the target it was pointed at—it’s simply that it would likely destroy quite a few things around that target also. And in a major population center like Kiev, that’s not quite tenable.
The [Iranian Khorramshahr-4 IRBM] groupings of the submunitions appear much more widely dispersed, which appears to indicate the Oreshnik is quite a bit more accurate. A prominent Iranian analyst believes the reason for this is that the Khorramshahr needs to eject its submunitions much earlier in order to prevent US THAAD systems from targeting the entire bus which carries them. This causes them to disperse more widely during re-entry, making them less accurate. Since Russia doesn’t have to contend with true exo-atmospheric ballistic missile defense in Ukraine, it can dial in the submunition release much closer to the ground, making it more precise—at least according to this theory, which is plausible. It’s like shotgun buckshot or birdshot: the closer you fire, the tighter the grouping of pellets.
Another interesting aspect was the announcement by Ukraine that Russia began to strike Kiev’s water supply facilities. […] If true, it would represent another small milestone in a potential “gloves-off” shift of strategies from the Kremlin.
For those that read the premium piece yesterday and recall my theory that Zelensky and his gang likely provokes such Russian attacks—Oreshnik and all—on purpose because it suits the political agenda to paint Russia as an aggressive force hellbent on destroying civilian cities. Medvedev earlier appeared to share that opinion almost verbatim in his own post.