This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
๐ฎ๐ฑโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ทCAN ISRAEL STRIKE IRAN WITHOUT THE US? The Tanker Math (Nobody Is Doing) Doesn't Math
Trump says US forces won't participate in Isn'treal's announced retaliation against Iran.
Cool story, Daddy.
Let's look at what Isn'treal can actually do on its own:
โ๏ธIsrael's entire aerial refueling fleet:
- 7ร Boeing KC-707 Re'em (~75t transferable fuel each)
- 1ร Boeing KC-46A "Gideon" (delivered May 27, ~95t transferable fuel)
๐ขTotal: 8 tankers โก๏ธ~620 tons of fuel
The geography:
- Isn'treal to western Iranian targets (Isfahan, Natanz): ~1,500โ1,700 km -Israel to Tehran: ~2,000 km
- Maximum range of "Isn'treali" F-35/F-15 manned terror dispensers: ~2,000 km
At these distances, the actual mission profile for strike aircraft is:
- 1๏ธโฃ Take off from an IOF airbase carrying max strike payload
- 2๏ธโฃ Immediate post-takeoff top-off over friendly airspace (~300โ400 km out)
- 3๏ธโฃ Transit to Iranian AD zone - enter fuel-critical for maneuverability
- 4๏ธโฃ Execute strike, exit Iranian airspace
- 5๏ธโฃ Emergency egress refuel immediately after exiting Iranian AD (~eastern GCC/OnlyFans Caliphates)
- 6๏ธโฃ Return transit to Israel
That's three refueling stations required simultaneously โ with no tanker able to safely loiter near Iranian airspace.
๐ง The math:
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8 tankers split across 3 stations = 2โ3 tankers per station - in theory. More likely: 2 tankers per "safe zone" stations, 4 tankers for the emergency egress refuel.
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Each tanker carries ~75t (95t) of transferable fuel. Each strike aircraft (F-35I, F-15I) needs roughly 6โ8t per refueling event. That's 9โ12 aircraft serviced per tanker per station โ before it's empty.
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With 2-3 tankers at the critical egress bracket, that's theoretically 18โ24 aircraft โ and the timing and sequencing can collapse fast, as pilots exiting Iranian airspace fuel-critical cannot queue. They need gas now, in short sequence, cannot loiter or "hop on to the next station".
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Maximum realistic sortie: 15โ20 aircraft. One wave. Then the entire fleet lands, refuels, and resets.
Another, even bigger Elephant in the room - who will deal with Iranian AD systems? Where will Isn'trealis get the anti-radar specialists to supress Iranian AD and enable the aerial incursion into its airspace in the first place?
๐ง Conclusion:
Without the actual US military, its Isn'treali proxy cannot do a single real aerial operation against Iran - they can deliver their calling card - launch 20-30 stand-off munitions at targets in western Iran. At best.
Oh, another "interesting" fact: currently there are 40+ US KC-135s and KC-46s parked at Ben Gurion Airport - and they're staying there "till end of 2027".
Their numbers actually grew from ~36 during the February-March terror campaign against Iran to 47 after the ceasefire, with additional tankers rotating in despite Iran destroying or damaging at least 7 US refuelers during the conflict (1 shot down over Iraq, 5 damaged at Prince Sultan AB in Saudi Arabia, at least 1 more hit in action).
The US tankers at Ben Gurion have been flying daily sorties continuously since early April.
The Orangetan Stable genius Window Licker Supreme Leader claims US War machine will not take part in this new war crime.
๐ปAnyone buying this BS claim should immediately contact our Chatbot - we have a special, once in a lifetime offer on magical beans and bridges and Moon and Mars real estate plots at very reasonable prices. We'll throw in some time-shares on Ivanka & Twink's paradise island in Albania for the first 999 buyers.
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Some analysis I'd like to see if anyone can check here on grad if they are capable. Though, I think the conclusion that the US is gonna get involved with any Israeli aggression regardless of what Trump say is accurate.
