Greenleaf

I largely agree with you. I just finished reading Socialism Betrayed (great book, highly recommend it). That book’s thesis is that the major contributor to the collapse of the Soviet Union was the development and growth of a “second economy” - economic activity outside of official channels that could either be legal, illegal, or something in between. The growth of this second economy led to the development within the USSR of an entire social base of individuals with a material interest in seeing the overthrow of socialism. A base about which not only did the CPSU do nothing about, but actually many party members were deeply entrenched in this “second economy”. The book cites a quote from someone who stated that there was NO illicit enterprise in the USSR that would have lasted a month without support from someone in the party.

China is not the topic of this book, but the authors do spend a page or two commenting on what is an obvious question: if this is what helped undo the Soviet Union, what does that mean for China, who has a more legal but vastly larger second economy? The authors express concern and maybe even a bit of skepticism, but not outright criticism (and keep in mind, they were writing in 2004 and in the last 20 years quite a few western Marxist have changed their views on China, like David Harvey).

Reading between the lines, I think they are saying it could work, but what we’ll call Dengism is a very risky move. You have a massive social base in China of people who may very much like the CPC, but also very much like their ability to own a business and get rich. People who will revolt against any strong measures to curtail these markets. In the USSR, this social base saw socialism as a hindrance to their potential. In China this same social base faces no real limitations on their material advancement, so they have no reason to rock the boat.

Long way of saying, I think “boiling the frog” is the only move the CPC can make. And actually, if that’s the move the CPC wants to make I think they will be successful. The bigger question to me is, is that actually what the CPC wants to do? Even talking about the CPC as if there is one voice is a mistake. I’m sure this is the direction Xi would like to go in, but there are also plenty of liberals in the party (IIRC the #2 in the party is a huge, unabashed lib). The party itself is very opaque when it comes to things like this, but I do think it is NOT a foregone conclusion that the dedicated Marxists in the party will win in the end. Boiling the frog I think will work but the party itself needs to be committed to that line, which I am not sure they are there yet.

This was the path that was open to them in 2014. Arguably, it’s the path most Ukrainians wanted. That big economic deal that Yanukovich tried to make with Putin would have kept them neutral, because they had to make a deal with someone and Putin was more interested in keeping Ukraine away from NATO than pulling them into Russia’s orbit.

But that was unacceptable to the US and NATO. So they fanned the flames of Maidan, which in itself led to tremendous division in Ukraine. And when Ukraine was looking to make a deal to end the conflict quickly, that’s when Boris Johnson came by with either threats or lies (or both) to keep them fighting. For any Lemmy libs who may wander in here, that is why I give my critical support to Russia in this fight. In no way is some inevitable, ancient conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In fact, every time Ukraine has had a chance to pull the car over to side of the road, the US has been there to jerk the steering wheel back and step on the gas.

Death to America.

He was also managing the empire before the era of neoliberalization. From the Great Depression up until the 1980s, it was generally understood and accepted among the powerful regardless of party affiliation that you have to intervene in the market. There was no interest in laissez-faire libertarian capitalist, in the US that only came about with Reagan.

Also ignored everyone who said “don’t go along with Elise Stefanik’s little congressional university president witch-hunt”, much less totally debase yourself in front of her. They will not see you as one of the “good ones”, they will just smell blood in the water.

The most far-reaching price controls in US history were initiated by noted communist Richard Nixon…

Incidentally this applies 100% to Israeli settlers, too.

I started by looking at a James Lindsay tweet, and then spent waaay too much time reading the replies, and then going down too many rabbit holes of seeing profiles of boomer MAGA weirdos with the worst takes on communism you can possibly imagine.

Americans brains are so deeply broken. They are convinced there’s some massive conspiracy, led by the Democrats and noted communists like George Soros to bring about a communist revolution, which apparently is going to happen definitively if Trump isn’t re-elected.

I don’t know why it bugs me as much as it does.

It’s 100% faked.

Saying this as an outsider, so I can only speak to appearances, which means I may be very wrong.

But it seems to me that China still trusts the United States way too much. It’s almost as if they can’t see why the US would be will to throw away a relationship that has been so profitable for both countries for so long. Or at least, they do not quite see the full threat that the US poses.

It could just be that China doesn’t feel like they are in a position yet to make strong counter-moves against the US. I mean, yes, I think they do recognize this and that’s part of the rationale for the belt and road initiative, for dumping US T-bills and moving into gold, etc. But I don’t know if they realize the speed at which the US is moving.

I really enjoy board games - those complicated ones that can take hours to play. And I usually play with a good friend of mine since we were little kids. This friend of mine is absolutely brilliant, too. And whenever we play games together, he wins almost every time. Why? Objectively, the strategies I take are usually “correct” and well thought out. I don’t think my strategies are any worse than his. However, my friend operates on another level when it comes to speed. I will have this whole machine built in my head, but I will say to myself that I still need to do X and Y to win. And then by that point, my friend will already have won.

Maybe that’s a silly parallel to the China/US situation. While I don’t think China actually trusts the US anymore, I do hope they realize the implications of what the US is planning on doing, and realize that they may need to rapidly speed up their plans to counter.

Requesting thoughts from the New Mega Economic Bureau:

I do believe the prospects for the Israeli economy are very grim (inshallah). They've lost a huge number of citizens to emigration, disability, and death. The economy relied quite a bit on over 200k Palestinian workers who Israel has said they don't intend on welcoming back. I think they will stick to that, and their plans for replacing those workers from others from places like India I don't think will pan out (both for logistical reasons and because Israelis are deeply racist). I can't imagine they will be able to draw immigrants like they used to and will likely bleed more citizens as they've shown their own people just how precarious their lives there are. The tourism industry there is dead. Their reputation in surveillance and security - an important export industry for them - has taken a massive reputational hit. I doubt Intel will want to continue on there.

When the potential destruction of the Israeli economy (and thus, by extension, the Israeli state) is brought up, a perfectly understandable retort is that the US will do whatever they need to to prop up the Israeli economy. That's what I more or less what I think at least on the surface. But the question I have been asking myself is: is it even possible for the US to prop up the Israeli economy?

My understanding is that all "aid" from the US to Israel takes the form of US dollars being used to purchase US-made munitions and military equipment. The money never touches Israeli hands, is never sent through the Isreali economy, and is not used for anything "productive" from the Israeli economic perspective. And this the general modus operandi for US foreign aid - the foreign country doesn't get cash and they CERTAINLY aren't granted like, the ability to recruit US firms to build facilities there. So point being... sure, the US can take USD and buy not just military gear from the US MIC, but they can also buy food from US farmers, cars from US manufacturers, etc. They can make sure Israel has food to eat and coal to keep power plants running. But all of that won't actually do anything for the real, productive economy of Israel.

Oct 7 has shattered the very foundations of the productive economy of Israel - industrial capital, in the language of vol 2 of Capital. And these fundamental problems that have been created cannot be cured with US foreign aid. If I'm right then I don't think there's any the US can do in order to rescue the Israeli economy in the long run.

Thoughts?

Well that's "good".