Super Rugby obviously has a bit of a weird structure now with only 11 teams after the Melbourne Rebels collapsed.

It got me thinking a bit about what NZR & ARU could change assuming no other countries are going to join, and one thing I wondered was whether New Zealand should deliberately weaken our Super franchises to help make the Australian ones more competitive & hopefully make their public a bit more interested (if they win more).

So I started to think about what the population spread was like around New Zealand and one thing that really sticks out is how bottom heavy our current distribution of clubs is. 1 million punters in the South Island get 2 franchises, but 4.5m odd North Islanders only get 3 + Moana Pasifika. Its actually a bit silly that the Highlanders still exist given the population shifts since the 90s.

Anyway, that made me wonder if it might be possible to in effect add a 6th New Zealand franchise - which including MP would make 7 based in New Zealand in total, so came up with this before & after table to show how its a much more equitable split. And then 7 NZ, 4 Aus & 1 Fiji gets us back to 12 Franchises and at least in NZ gets more games in front of more people.

• 1 Included with Auckland.
• 2 Includes Whanganui in the census data.
• 3 From 2026 I think the new stadium is supposed to be in use.
• 4 Includes Marlborough, same as the NPC Province
• 5 Moana Pasifika are currently, and for the forseeable future going to be playing most of their matches in New Zealand, neither Samoa nor Tonga have stadiums and infrastructure setup to host like Fiji Drua have.
• Population regions not included:
• • Gisborne 50k - because its quite remote from either Hurricanes or Chiefs
• • West Coast South Island 32k - because its remote from everywhere

• 6 I included Gisborne population in this one as with a franchise based in this part of the country they are a bit more included than they are with the Chiefs or Hurricanes.

Table:

Fixtures: 4/10:

• Northland v Otago

5/10:

• Manawatū v Counties-Manukau
• Southland v North Harbour
• Wellington v Hawke's Bay
• Canterbury v Waikato

6/10:

• Tasman v Taranaki
• Auckland v Bay of Plenty

Notes: Auckland managing to fail against Hawke's Bay on the Saturday didn't bode well for their effort to take the shield off Tasman, and sure enough they failed again so bar a miracle where they manage to beat BoP and the two worst teams pick up wins they're out. Ditto for Otago.

The drama in this round is basically down to how many bonus points North Harbour pick up against Southland, compared to Counties-Manukau against the Manawatū Turbos who are awful.

Beyond that there's still another couple of big games. Given recent form Hawke's Bay are unlikely to be much of a challenge for Wellington, but the Tasman v Taranaki game should determine who gets 2nd place and later that day Waikato & Canterbury are basically playing to determine which team they have to travel to for the quarter finals.

Table:

Fixtures: 27/09:

• Counties-Manukau v Wellington

28/09:

• BoP v Northland
• Hawke's Bay v Auckland
• Otago v Tasman

29/09:

• North Harbour v Canterbury
• Southland v Waikato
• Taranaki v Manawatū

2/10:

• Tasman v Auckland

Predictions:

• Wellington 15+
• BoP 21+
• Hawke's Bay 1-^1^
• Tasman 12+
• North Harbour 6-
• Waikato 12+
• Taranaki 50+

1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)

Notes:

Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.

Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.

Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.

North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.

Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.

So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.

As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.

• All Blacks v Wallabies
• Argentina v South Africa

Big news ahead of Bledisloe 1 is that Beauden Barrett is out with illness which sees Jordan move to 15, Reece comes on at 14 with Harry Plumber being named on the reserve bench.

That suggests he’s leapt ahead of Havili as the utility player - and in a way it actually does make a lot of sense. Jordan, JB & McKenzie give 3 options at 15, Plumber gives cover at 10 & 12, and ALB gives 12 & 13 cover with the option of Ioane heading to the wing too. Very versatile backs.

Table:

Fixtures:

20/09

• Hawke's Bay v Taranaki

21/09

• Northland v North Harbour
• Canterbury v Counties-Manukau
• Wellington v BoP

22/09

• Waikato v Tasman
• Auckland v Southland
• Manawatū v Otago

25/09

• Taranaki v North Harbour

Predictions:

• Hawke's Bay 3+ (going with my heart on this one bc after last weekend, the head says its going to be a struggle)
• North Harbour 14+
• Canterbury 10+
• Wellington 4+
• Tasman 10+
• Auckland 10+
• Otago 5+
• Taranaki 10+

Notes: Including this weekend there are 3 rounds left until the quarter-finals, the current top 4 should make the top 8 though all of them would be hoping for at least 1 win from the next 3 matches. Especially with Tasman & Taranaki having a game in hand, the former should be eyeing up top of the table.

Of course, they're a very good team, and clearly well resourced given the talent they have signed up so anything outside of top 4 would have been a fail. I'd say the top 7 are probably going to make the playoffs and its really just about whether North Harbour or Counties-Manukau squeek in last place.

Write up from my old mate Max Rashbrooke on the success of the school lunch program, and the likely impacts of the cuts to the program from the National-Act-NZ First government.

Table:

Fixtures:

13/09:

• Southland v Canterbury

14/09:

• BoP v Taranaki
• North Harbour v Manawatū
• Waikato v Hawke's Bay

15/09:

• Counties-Manukau v Otago
• Tasman v Wellington
• Northland v Auckland

18/09:

• Manawatū v Southland

Predictions: Canterbury 9- BoP 5+ North Harbour 25+ Hawke's Bay 5- Otago 5- Wellington 3+ Auckland 9- Southland 5-

Notes: Well, after the absolute tragedy that befell Hawke's Bay in their Shield defense against the Mako, i'm hoping Wellington will visit Nelson and at least ensure that Tasman only get to celebrate for a week.

That should be a hell of a game with all of the squad ABs being released to play for their provinces and Wellington have been very good so far this season.

Last weekend saw a lot of movement in the bottom half of the table - with lots of drama as well. See if you can find clip of wet-ball-gate from the Battle of the Bridge. Absolute dastardly shithousery robbed North Harbour.

There's plenty of other good matches ahead this weekend too - BoP v Taranaki should settle who's in 4th place, and the mid-week home game for the Turbos could be their only chance of picking up a win this season.

I'm glad the tests are over for this weekend, hopefully the rugby pundits down here will pay some attention to the NPC in their shows. But likely it'll get a passing mention while they spend 45 minutes talking up the Wobblies and then at the end of the season they'll have another moan about how nobody cares about the NPC.

Table:

Fixtures: Friday 06/09: BoP v Manawatū

Saturday 07/09: Auckland v North Harbour Wellington v Southland Otago v Canterbury Hawke's Bay v Tasman (Ranfurly Shield)

Sunday 08/09: Taranaki v Waikato Counties-Manukau v Northland

Wednesday 11/09: Otago v Wellington

Notes: The biggest game this round is the Ranfurly Shield match on Saturday night, Tasman have never one it as the combined union of Marlborough/Nelson Bays so they'll be up for it; and of course Hawke's Bay will be desperate to keep their winning record. Whoever wins gets both the log o' wood and top of the table.

Other than that, there's a couple of other usually fierce derbies. The Battle of the Bridge on Satuurday, then Otago v Canterbury. Most of the rest of the matches aren't especially exciting.

My Predictions: BoP 24+ North Harbour 9- Wellington 18+ Otago 3- Hawke's Bay 3- Taranaki 9+ Northland 9- Wellington 6+

Unfortunately that's behind a paywall, but there's ways and means of reading it, eg via RSS subscription to NZ Herald.

A couple of notes for the benefit of those that can't read it. Two lecturers in maths education have pointed out that Luxon's claim that there is a crisis is misleading as the achievement data is "based on a new draft curriculum, with a higher benchmark compared to previous years."

ie, the standard for achievement is higher, not the level of maths knowledge declining suddenly. In fact "We’ve been tracking student achievement in mathematics at Year 8 for more than 10 years, and in that time, there has been no evidence for improvement or decline."

More alarmingly for me, a ministerial advisory group was setup which has recommended a new curriculum even while acknowledging there is a lack of evidence for teaching maths the way it proscribes.

That advisory group is chaired by an NZ Initiative idealogue, Dr Michael Johnston and the article almost infers he is basically pushing his own manifesto on how education should be conducted into the curriculum - again, despite evidence it has application to maths education.

For anyone that doesn't know, the NZ Initiative was formed by merging the Business Roundtable and the NZ Institute. They are far right neoliberal idealogues and you'll see people cycle through the organisation before going into political reporting or lobbying, or in Nicola Willis case being placed into political party roles.

Table:

Fixtures:

Friday 30/08:

• Northland v Southland

Saturday 31/08:

• North Harbour v Counties-Manukau
• Taranaki v Otago
• Waikato v Auckland
• Tasman v BoP

Sunday 01/09:

• Canterbury v Wellington
• Manawatū v Hawke's Bay

Wednesday 04/09:

• Waikato v Northland

My Predictions:

• Northland 9+
• North Habour 18+
• Taranaki 6+
• Waikato 9+
• Tasman 6+
• Wellington 9-
• Hawke's Bay 15+
• Northland 6-

1/3 of Round Robin Notes: With Round 3/9 complete now (the fixtures list I refer to has the playoffs as Rounds 10-12 which is a bit random) I figured i'd entertain myself by doing a bit of a stock-take of where we are at.

The defending champs Taranaki are progressing ok with their 1 loss so far coming away to one of the top 4 teams Wellington, are sitting ok, but the draw is a little unkind to them in that their easier games are mostly at home but they still have to play BoP, Tasman & Hawke's Bay on the road.

The comp progresses through quarter-finals, semis to the final so they'll make the playoffs but will need to work hard to get the home advantage they had last year.

The beaten finalists Hawke's Bay are looking quite good especially this week picking up a win away in Canterbury during the storm week. Time will tell though as its all tough games from now, even this Sunday's match against cellar dwellers Manawatū could be banana peel being the 3rd match in 9 days.

Probably the biggest surprise so far is how average Waikato, and how poor Auckland have been. You know you're having a bad season when Southland are ahead of you on the table.

The current top 5 look likely to make the playoffs, of the rest Canterbury will surely make it in though are battling a lot of injuries. The table feels a bit similar to Super Rugby this year. The top 4-5 are clear but places 6-12 are still probably anyone's to take and really only Manawatū & Counties-Manukau are looking completely out of the running.

Crowd wise - its the usual story. The over-saturated Super Rugby markets that struggled to get people to turn up unless it was a big game struggle to get people to show to the NPC. But the provinces that get one or no Super Rugby matches are having pretty good crowds in attendance from what i've seen so far.

This is my editorialising, but I struggle to see how its not yet more Crusaders bias selecting Bower over Numia.

I get that the latter is uncapped and coming off an injury but Numia was probably the form prop in Super Rugby this year and is going to be 3rd choice prop, not playing in either game unless there's an injury anyway.

Bower's only come back from even more serious injury this year and while he's had some tests under his belt i'd say there's just as many question marks over his international game with answers as unanswered questions about Numia.

Table:

Fixtures:

Friday 23/08:

• Hawke's Bay v Northland (Ranfurly Shield Challenge)

Saturday 24/08:

• Counties-Manukau v Tasman
• Auckland v Canterbury
• Southland v Taranaki

Sunday 25/08:

• Otago v BoP
• Wellington v Manawatū
• North Harbour v Waikato

Wednesday 28/08:

• Canterbury v Hawke's Bay

My Predictions:

• Hawkes-Bay 6+ (I'm on call this week so won't be at McLean Park :( )
• Tasman 18+
• Auckland 6-
• Taranaki 6+
• BoP 6+
• Wellington 27+
• North Harbour 6+
• Canterbury 10-