Tipping points are important--and well-named--features of many complex systems, including financial and ecological systems. At a tipping point, a small change in conditions in the system can result in drastic changes overall (just as a small change in the weight of one end of a see-saw can reverse positions). Most such systems are studied using mathematical models based on collections of differential equations. The variables in the equations are related, leading to feedback in the system and potentially substantial changes, such as economic collapse. Research is now being done to recognize tipping points in hopes that something can be done before it is too late.
Some catastrophic changes have occurred when Earth’s natural systems have been disrupted. One happened over 200 million years ago when more than 90% of the planet’s species became extinct. Mathematics helped in the formulation of a new theory for the cause of the die-off: a methane-producing microbe that thrived on nickel produced by active volcanoes in Siberia. Faster-than-exponential growth in carbon levels at the time pointed to a biological trigger, and computational genomics showed that that strain of microbe came into existence at about the same time as the extinctions. This is a case in which a tipping point was in fact about the size of a point.
https://www.ams.org/publicoutreach/mathmoments/mm127-tipping-point-podcast
If you are sailing and the wind picks up, at what point will your boat capsize? Abrupt and often irreversible transitions can be observed in a wide variety of systems including ecological communities, complex disease and social networks, to name a few. These so-called ’critical transitions’ are typically brought on by a gradual change in external conditions that quietly bring the system into the vicinity of a tipping point. Despite the seemingly unpredictable nature of an approaching tipping point, there are certain mathematical features that a system exhibits on this journey, which can provide clues as to the risk of an imminent critical transition. This talk will introduce the audience to such features along with a more general discussion on the role of mathematics in understanding complex systems and their embedded tipping points. Whether it’s to prevent disasters or predict reactions, a better understanding of the science behind tipping points is essential to understanding both natural and artificial phenomena.
https://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_bury_the_mathematics_of_tipping_points
In the 1960s, the Soviet climatologist and mathematician Mikhail Budyko set out to investigate the potential future of a planet on the brink of nuclear Armageddon. He started by looking some 600 million years into the past.
Back then, some scientists claimed, the ancient planet was an iced-over snowball. Most researchers considered that a crackpot theory. Ice over the equator? Please. But Budkyo developed a mathematical model to back it up. If sea ice had been able to expand past a critical latitude, he suggested, then its reflective surface would have returned more sunlight to space. This would have kicked off an out-of-control feedback loop: The planet would cool further and ice would build up until it spread everywhere. The Earth would, in other words, tip from one equilibrium into a different one, reaching a new stable — and frozen — state.
Budyko’s investigation was motivated by a pressing question: If the global climate had tipped dramatically and catastrophically in the past, could humans tip it in the present? He and others feared what would happen if the United States and the Soviet Union launched their nuclear arsenals. “They realized, look, if we block the sun for sufficiently long, we’re going to just destroy life on the planet,” said Valerio Lucarini (opens a new tab), a statistical physicist studying the Earth’s climate at the University of Leicester. “Not even the cockroaches will survive.”
The missiles didn’t launch. But it turned out that nukes weren’t necessary for humans to tip the climate. By the time Budyko was building his Snowball Earth models, it was clear that atmospheric carbon dioxide was rising, and with it global temperatures.
Since then, mathematicians have uncovered the potential for abrupt and radical shifts in Earth’s climate — known popularly as tipping points. The loss of sea ice could cause the oceans to absorb more of the sun’s heat, crossing a threshold (opens a new tab) that kicks off runaway ice melt and rising seas. The Amazon rainforest could wither into a savanna (opens a new tab); coral reefs could bleach ghost-white (opens a new tab); a major current in the Atlantic Ocean might go slack (opens a new tab) and fail to deliver warmth to Europe, turning Scotland into Siberia.
Tipping points often capture the worst-case scenarios of climate models: the reorganization of the world we know, and the human civilization we’ve built within it, into a new equilibrium state — an unimaginable, frightening unknown.
Yet the math of tipping points is fraught with uncertainty. The Earth is certainly warming, and the effects of that warming, if left unchecked, will be dire. But tipping points are subtler phenomena. Slight changes in the assumptions a mathematical model is built on can cause tipping points to unfold very differently or even slip away entirely. And in most cases, scientists are armed with relatively little data, making it challenging to understand the chaotic nature of tippable climate systems, much less predict where they’re headed.
The uncertainty is so great that some scientists question whether it’s useful to talk about tipping points at all. Perhaps these vague apocalyptic visions only cause confusion and distraction (opens a new tab). If the scenarios are both terrifying and abstract, they might make people decide it’s just not worth the effort to fight climate change.
Mathematicians following in Budyko’s footsteps want to change the way we think about tipping points, and to translate them into meaningful information. “Natural systems don’t obey theorems — fortunately, or else the world would be a very boring place to live,” Lucarini said. But, he added, it’s urgent to find more nuanced ways to bridge the “big gray zone” between math and reality.
Mathematicians can’t change certain factors, like how little data they have to go on or how vulnerable model outcomes might be to their assumptions. But they’ve been studying tipping point behavior — in one form or another, and in all kinds of complex systems — for more than a century. In doing so, they’ve learned valuable lessons about what tipping points can and can’t reveal about Earth’s climate, and about how close to reality they should try to get. “You can live happily in the mirror world of math. It’s beautiful,” said Marten Scheffer (opens a new tab), a complex systems theorist at Wageningen University. “But applying it to reality is a minefield.”
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-math-of-climate-change-tipping-points-20250915/
A lake that used to be clear, with a rich vegetation and a diverse aquatic life, suddenly becomes turbid, with much less vegetation and only bottom dwelling fish remaining. It turns out that the change comes from increased nutrient loading, but when the runoff leading to the nutrient inflow is reduced, the lake doesn’t become clear again – it remains murky.
A dry land area with patchy vegetation becomes completely barren after an especially dry season, but when normal rain patterns return, it remains a desert.
An entire planet that used to have varied climate zones, ranging from tropical areas to icecaps near the poles, freezes over completely, perhaps due to variations in the solar energy output, with all oceans frozen except near some thermal vents and all continents covered by thick ice sheets. When the solar output increases again, the planet remains in its frozen state.
These are examples of transitions of ecological systems past “tipping points” – the subject of a fascinating talk given by Mary Lou Zeeman on March 28 of this year in the Carriage House lecture hall of the Mathematical Association of America (MAA) in Washington, DC. Mary Lou, one of six children of the well known British mathematician Sir Christopher Zeeman, is a professor of mathematics at Bowdoin College and works on dynamical systems, with applications in ecology and biology. The Carriage House auditorium was full when she gave her talk. The audience included students, residents of the Washington area who are interested in science, and local mathematicians – just the ecological mix that the MAA lecture series tries to achieve.
There is a commonality to all these scenarios that can be described with mathematical methods from bifurcation theory. Mary Lou used the “Snowball Earth” scenario of the third example to illustrate this. According to geological evidence, this “mother of all tipping points” actually occurred on Earth not just once, but several times about 600 million years ago. Each complete glaciation lasted many millions of years and ended only when carbon dioxide in the atmosphere accumulated due to volcanic emissions to levels which were much higher than today, leading to a monstrous greenhouse effect and a rapid transition from “snowball” to “hothouse” Earth. Mary Lou presented a fairly simple energy balance model that is capable of explaining the fact that both a moderate and a frozen climate state are possible and stable on the same planet, with the same solar output. These different climate states are possible since a planet with a moderate climate tends to have a low albedo (most of the sunlight is absorbed by oceans and continents and keeps the planet warm) while a frozen planet has a high albedo (sunlight is reflected back by ice packs and snowfields, keeping the planet cold). The model is flexible enough to explain also the transitions between “snowball” and “hothouse” states. Intriguingly, the so-called Cambrian explosion, during which many of today’s animal phyla first appeared, happened not long after these snowball episodes.
Relatively simple mathematical models offer common explanations of such multiple stable states. Transitions between such states tend to be rapid and surprising, which is a scary thought. Mathematical insights can also lead to better detection mechanisms for such transitions and even suggest experiments to assess the resilience of an ecological system against random perturbations. For example, near such a transition point, such a system will return to its stable state more slowly after a perturbation, and its response to such a perturbation will also show more variance. Mary Lou specifically pointed to the work of Marten Scheffer and his co-authors on early warning signs for such critical transitions (Nature 2009, Science 2012).
The mathematical sciences therefore can contribute to decision support for managers and policymakers. The speaker suggested that when ecological systems are observed and managed for sustainability, such a goal should include resilience. In mathematical terms, this means one should not just identify stable equilibrium states but also understand the “size” of their basin of attraction and their sensitivity to changes of external parameters.
And here’s another term that I remember from this talk: Mathematical scientists should show “interdisciplinary courage” and instill this in their students. This includes not just a willingness to learn the language and problems of another discipline. In the privacy of their office, mathematicians are already used to dead ends and unsuccessful attempts before coming up with good ideas. As members of interdisciplinary research teams, they also need to risk having “bad ideas in public”. That’s a resilience that all of us should acquire.
http://mpe.dimacs.rutgers.edu/2013/04/09/mathematics-of-tipping-points/



























































































































































