I’ve watched the California fires over the last few days with the same horror as everyone else; we’re watching major parts of one of the nation’s major cities burn in real-time, in an event that’s best described as a fire-hurricane, an event all-but unthinkable not that long ago but one that is increasingly common as decades of misguided fire-management policies collide with expanding population in the so-called “wildland–urban interface,” all accelerated by changing, hotter, drier climate conditions. It is a literal recipe for epic disaster.

Unfortunately, California’s fires are a harbinger of what’s to come in a world where we increasingly feel the effects of climate change—but it’s also a warning about HOW our world is going to change in the years and decades ahead. I don’t pretend to be a climate scientist or to understand the precise feedback loops that may, for instance, cause the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or the melting of Greenland. However, I have in recent years spent a lot of time thinking about climate as a political threat.

Over the past few decades, we’ve spent most of our national focus thinking about climate change as a technology and economic challenge. Can we move away from fossil fuels and adopt renewables at a fast enough pace to change the arc of warming? How can we use tax incentives and industrial policy to drive the adoption of electrical vehicles faster? How can we better create batteries and power storage solutions to smooth out the variability of solar and wind energy? How quickly will the cost of solar panels continue to fall? How do we impose more appropriate costs on carbon?

In that time tackling this as a tech and economic challenge, we’ve actually made substantial progress on a lot of these problems and have, so far, fundamentally altered the arc of our planet’s climate. As one leading climate thinker I spoke with last fall told me, “We were on a course to four-and-a-half to six degrees of warming. That is not a world that is livable. Today, maybe we’re on a path for two-and-a-half or three-and-a-half degrees of warming—still bad, but better. That trajectory is headed in the right direction.”

But the California fires underscore how, as we actually begin to live the effects of even that “better-than-it-could-have-been” era of warming, the tech and economic challenge is going to take a backseat to a bigger crisis.

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17941012

Dozens of sea mammals have been found dead since last month's Russian oil tanker spill in the Black Sea, a dolphin rescue center said Sunday, as authorities raced to contain the disaster.

The spill began on December 15, when two aging Russian tankers were caught in a storm off the Kerch Strait linking Crimea to southern Russia.

One sank and the other ran aground, pouring around 2,400 tonnes of a heavy fuel oil called mazut into the surrounding waters, authorities estimate.

Russia's Delfa center, which rescues and rehabilitates dolphins, said it had recorded 61 dead cetaceans since the incident, 32 of whom "most likely" died due to the spill.

Cetaceans are a type of aquatic mammal that includes whales, dolphins and porpoises.

[...]

Well, well, well ...

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.bestiver.se/post/172650

Comments

Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17832023

Archived version

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.

The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.

[...]

China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.

Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.

[...]

Grassroots activists and marine scientists in Algeria are building artificial reefs to restore biodiversity and sustain fishing communities, but scaling up requires more than passion—it needs institutional support and political will.

In Algeria, the average quantity of fish taken out of sea has been recorded at a consistent 100,000 tons per annum over the last three decades. However, as Algeria’s population continues to grow, authorities estimate that they will need to rely on techniques such as fish farming to reach the 200,000 tons that will be necessary to meet domestic needs.

Artificial reefs at a larger scale might also provide support for fishing by promoting the reproduction of fish and other marine species close to the coast. But Algeria has a long way to go, since artificial reefs have only been immersed on an experimental level by diving associations helped by scientists the last ten years. “There has been a drop-off in the number of fish over the last few years. We have to go farther and farther into sea. In other countries fishing is halted for a few weeks every year so that the species can repopulate, but not here,” Fatah claims.

Thanks to their advocacy, Hippone Sub in coordination with the Probiom Foundation—Algeria’s network for marine biodiversity protection, created in 2009—managed to attract the attention of the highest authorities in Algeria. In 2017, just one year after the first reef was submerged by the association in Annaba, the government passed a law to regulate the immersion of artificial reefs.

“This law allows a local wilaya (provincial) commission to grant permission for the immersion of artificial reefs to project sponsors, whether they are associations, institutions, or others,” explains Emir Berkane, a doctor, environmental activist, and president of the Probiom Foundation. The legislation also enabled Hippone Sub and Probiom to begin their second project in 2021 with “two new pyramidal immersions that measure 33 m³ and 66 m³,” creating one of the largest reefs in Algeria, says Emir Berkane. In Annaba, “one of the two pyramids is still thriving, along with the first artificial reef,” the environmental activist notes.

Over the last decade, there has been a surge in activity surrounding this issue, observes Professor Grimes. Several artificial reefs have been submerged off the Algerian coast by associations and researchers, notably in Oran and Mostaganem, which are located 420 and 330 kilometers west of Algiers, respectively. Other projects are in preliminary stages, including one in Aïn Témouchent, 490 kilometers west of Algiers, which is being worked on by Professor Grimes, himself.

Thanks to the efforts of dedicated organisations, scientists, engaged private-sector partners and thousands of committed local people, there is an abundance of biodiversity success stories springing up in the UK. While beavers and eagles may hog the headlines, there is so much more out there, from striking butterflies to diminutive plants, reimagined rivers to revived mountain slopes.

Conservation is a complex business, but new methods are emerging to preserve, improve and generate new habitat and, in many cases, attract back or reintroduce species not seen for decades. After a nudge, ecosystems are often doing much of the heavy work themselves. Inspiring examples can be the root of a wholesale fightback. It’s time to fight inertia and look towards a brighter future for UK biodiversity, with a selection of site visits worth putting on your calendar for the coming year.

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17552794

"Our findings indicate that the spatial risk of TC-induced damage to OSW turbines along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions is broadly expected to increase, with strong intermodel agreement on the sign of change (i.e., increase or decrease) in all regions assessed. Detailed regional estimates and their associated uncertainties are outlined in Table 1. Significant increases in yielding risk are expected for the Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula resulting from 20- and 50-year storms (Fig. 1), with the average risk of turbine yielding estimated to increase by nearly 40% for a 20-year storm (Fig. 1c) and 27% for a 50-year storm (Fig. 1f). The Atlantic Coast exhibits similar changes, with projected increases in turbine yielding risk of about 35% for 20-year TCs and 31% for 50-year TCs.

Buckling, being a more acute damage state than yielding, requires higher wind speeds to surpass the structural limit. Historically, the probability that 20- or 50-year storms would induce turbine buckling has been below 10% across all regions assessed. However, under future climate change, this probability is estimated to rise to as high as 57% (Table 1), with the strongest increases and future risk expected for the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions (Fig. 2). For the Gulf Coast and Florida, buckling risk from a 20-year storm is projected to increase from nearly 0% to almost 18% (Fig. 2c). This increase is far more severe when considering a 50-year storm, with the buckling risk in this region expected to grow by almost a factor of eight. Along the Atlantic Coast, the likelihood of TC-induced turbine buckling is projected to rise as well, with anticipated increases in risk of about 9% for a 20-year TC and 34% for a 50-year TC. For both turbine yielding and buckling, the likelihood of damage is markedly higher for the Southeast than the Northeast, differing by almost 12% historically and by over 24% in a simulated future climate (Table 1)."

It’s not yet game over for the AMOC. As we discussed in part one of this post, the actual observations of 3D AMOC flow through the North Atlantic are still too brief to separate natural variations from long-term trends. And a modest decrease observed over the last 40 years has just been revised in an even more modest direction.

More papers on AMOC evolution, including follow-up studies by several of the authors above, are already in the pipeline. And more forecasts of AMOC-collapse timing are surely on the way. Some 100 presentations and posters related to AMOC were featured in December at the American Geophysical Union’s 2024 annual meeting in Washington, D.C.

There are myriad ways to adapt to climate change that’s already unfolding or imminent, many of them spotlighted here at Yale Climate Connections, such as moving to higher ground and making communities more heat-resilient. It’s far less clear how one might prepare at this point for a possible AMOC collapse, given the huge uncertainties in both the timing and details of potential impacts.

Perhaps the best way to channel AMOC anxiety would be to work toward emission reductions that could help prevent or at least forestall an AMOC collapse in the first place. That can include everything from demanding climate action on the local, state, and federal levels to talking climate with neighbors and colleagues, as well as inspiring others by example through a lower-emissions lifestyle.

Archived version

What was supposed to be the final round of United Nations negotiations for a global plastics treaty ended without an agreement on Sunday, as delegates failed to reconcile opposing views on whether to impose a cap on plastic production.

Another negotiating session — dubbed INC-5.2 after this week’s INC-5 — will be held in 2025, but it’s unclear how countries will make further progress without a change in the treaty’s consensus-based decision-making process. As it stands, any delegation can essentially veto a proposal they don’t like, even if they’re opposed by most of the rest of the world.

“If it wasn’t for Saudi and Russia we would have reached an agreement here,” one European negotiator told the Financial Times. Those two countries, along with other oil producers like Iran and Kuwait, want the plastics treaty to leave production untouched and focus only on downstream measures: boosting the plastics recycling rate, for example, and cleaning up existing plastic pollution.

[...]

Dozens of countries — supported by scientists and environmental groups — say that approach is futile while the plastics industry plans to dramatically increase plastic production. “You can talk about waste management all you want, but this is not the silver bullet,” one of the European Union’s delegates said last week. “Mopping the floor when the tap is open is useless.”

[...]

Technically, the treaty could move forward without Saudi Arabia, Russia, and their allies, either continuing under the U.N. framework or — a more radical scenario — in a new forum led by a breakaway alliance of countries. The latter is unlikely given the time and energy countries have invested in the U.N. system, and because they still value the baseline mandate they agreed to two years ago: to “end plastic pollution” by addressing the “full life cycle of plastics.” But a smaller group of signatories could still make a global impact by using import tariffs and other trade policies to indirectly influence plastic production in non-signatory nations.

[...]

The report (download as pdf), led by the University of Bristol, is the first to examine global statistics on this form of protest and identify alarming trends. It reveals that more than 2,000 climate and environmental protesters have been killed over the past 12 years and that a raft of new anti-protest legislation has been enacted.

It calls for governments, police forces and the legal system to help protect people’s right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression.

Lead author Dr Oscar Berglund, Senior Lecturer in International Public and Social Policy at the University’s School for Policy Studies, said: “This research sheds important light on how the growing pursuit of climate and environmental protest is being handled globally. Our evidence clearly shows a global crackdown in liberal democracies as well as autocracies.

[...]

The findings showed murders and disappearances of climate and environmental activists are common in many countries, with international non-governmental organisation (NGO) Global Witness reporting at least 2,106 killings between 2012 and 2023. Brazil had the highest number with 401 fatalities, followed by 298 in the Philippines, 86 in India, and 58 in Peru.

A significant proportion of climate and environmental protests involved arrests, according to the research. The highest proportion, one in five, was found in Australia, followed by 17% in the UK – much higher than the international average of 6.3%.

Non-violent protesters were also found to be given lengthy prison sentences to act as a deterrent. For example, this year in the UK many climate activists have been sent to prison, with the longest sentence being five years.

[...]

Proposals for a new law which could see the bosses of major polluters jailed for up to 20 years has received enough support from MSPs to be introduced at Holyrood next year.

Monica Lennon's proposed Ecocide Prevention Bill has the backing of enough cross-party members to be brought forward and the Scottish government has indicated that it will not intervene to stop it.

This would clear the way for the bill to be formally introduced in the Scottish Parliament next year.

Scotland would be the first part of the UK to have such a law which could impose harsh penalties on executives responsible for major environmental damage.

Ecocide ​refers to mass damage and destruction of ecosystems – severe harm to nature which is widespread or long-term. Examples could include oil spills, mass deforestation, air or ocean pollution, mining damage and emissions.

Campaigners believe the crime should come under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, which can currently prosecute just four crimes: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and crimes of aggression.

...

An environmental lawyer has told UN News how children and teenagers from some of the most vulnerable neighbourhoods of Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina, have been moved to tears after encountering nature for the first time.

Ana Di Pangracio works for the civil society organization Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales or FARN which is involved in projects to restore degraded land in Argentina.

She and her team works in the Matanza Riachuelo basin which is a polluted area on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, which is home to around 4.5 million people, many of whom are living in socio-environmental vulnerable situations or other difficult circumstances.

Restoration activities include planting native flora and removing non-native invasive species across some 4.5 hectares, as well as building viewpoints and interpretative trails and cleaning up illegal garbage disposal.

Part of our work is bringing people, especially young people, to experience this restored natural wetland.

Many live close by in very urban, built-up areas and may come from challenging or violent environments but have never seen this land or had not even known of its existence.

[...]

"Some are moved to tears when they experience nature for the first time in their lives."

[...]

"There is a lot of land loss in Argentina, including areas which have become degraded by drought. In 2020, we experienced a three-year-long drought, the worst in over 60 years. This had serious social and environmental impacts."

Forty years ago, a deadly gas leak from a pesticide plant in the city of Bhopal in India killed at least 22,000 people. Since then, Bhopal has been a ‘sacrifice zone’ for the US-based chemical company Union Carbide Corporation (UCC), and its later owner the Dow Chemical Company (Dow), as well as the US and Indian authorities, in which half a million people across multiple generations continue to suffer.

Dow, one of the world’s largest chemical companies, in 2001 purchased UCC, the US-based company that had majority-owned the Bhopal plant at the time of the 1984 disaster. Dow took full control of UCC’s assets and benefits, and thereby, it should have also absorbed its liabilities. Instead, Dow has constantly distanced itself from any responsibility towards survivors.

Moreover, lobbying and pressure from the US government has ensured that American nationals and companies responsible for the disaster have escaped criminal justice.

More than 500,000 were injured or have suffered permanent harms, including through the inter-generational impact of MIC exposure on reproductive health, and through water sources contaminated by chemicals left on the site.

As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events are becoming more intense and more frequent all around the world.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4928706

Archived link

While developed countries have used the majority of this budget, the analysis shows that China’s historical emissions reached 312GtCO2 in 2023, overtaking the EU’s 303GtCO2.

China is still far behind the 532GtCO2 emitted by the US, however, according to the analysis.

The findings by Carbonbrief come amid fraught negotiations at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where negotiators have been invoking the “principle of historical responsibility” in their discussions over who should pay money towards a new goal for climate finance – and how much.

[...]

Historical CO2 emissions matter for climate change, because there is a finite “carbon budget” that can be released into the atmosphere before a given level of global warming is breached.

For example, in order to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, only around 2,800GtCO2 can be added to the atmosphere, counting all emissions since the pre-industrial period. (This is according to a 2023 study updating figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.)

Cumulative emissions since 1850 will reach 2,607CO2 by the end of 2024, according to Carbon Brief’s new analysis, meaning that some 94% of the 1.5C budget will have been used up.

[...]