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this post was submitted on 31 Mar 2024
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Netanyahu is an asshole. Israel is a democracy, but it has a proportional representation system which opens up scenarios where there's coalitions with extremists and since all power is in the parties it's more difficult to remove someone from power. So if Netanyahu's coalition with the extremists holds, he'll remain in power... until the next election. Not a good leader, but until the next election the world will need to negotiate with him.
Hamas is an overtly genocidal organization. They are fascist that took power the classic fascist way, win a plurality of the votes then permanently "suspend elections". They seek to restore ethnicity in the region to the way they were in the history books and are very willing to use violence to accomplish this. So Israel used the strategy of isolate them and wait for their movement to die off in time. In hindsight they should have affected a regime change immediately, but chose the less invasive approach for fascist regimes. So there was a blockade and a fence to contain them until the Palestinian people got tired of their shit and removed them from power. After 17 years of authoritarian rule, Hamas knew their support was fading and with an eminent deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia a big chunk of their funding would likely to get cut off. So on October 7, 2023 they sent their most zealous fighters into villages to murder as many people as they could to start a war, and took hostages to ensure it would be a ground war. Since they are fascists they are good at propaganda, they have used the suffering in the war they started to create international support for them. Given the success of their propaganda campaign and the international support they've gotten, the death in destruction will carry over into the next generation and the violence will persist for the foreseeable future.
There will be a ceasefire, and sooner or later Netanyahu will be removed from power. Israel will heal from the events of October 7. Though right of return is a dead issue now, Israelis won't want Palestinians moving in from Gaza for at least a generation, but in another generation any Palestinians that actually lost land in the conflicts of the past will be long gone. Of course Palestinians can get back some land in the West Bank, but it's not going to be much.
Given that movements based in hatred always result in destruction there's no good future for Palestine, whether it becomes a state or not. A very bleak future for Palestinians, but the TikTok crowd doesn't care, they got their likes and clout by using the suffering of Palestinians for their own profit the same way Hamas does. They'll move on to the next outrage within days of a ceasefire and forget all about Palestinians. Palestinians will continue to suffer under corrupt and authoritarian leaders. There's a significant probability that the kind of conflict we're seeing right now will happen again sometime in the future.
But hey you got to feel self righteous for a few months, that's what really matters, right?