281
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2024
281 points (97.3% liked)
politics
18586 readers
4380 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Honestly, maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November. They have so much fucking money on hand they can blow it in Florida to troll Trump and Desantis. I think roughly 10-20% of the Republican party is, because of Jan 6, never Trump voters. We see Haley getting about that much support in these late primaries, even after she dropped out. We haven't had an election with Trump on the ballot since Jan 6 I think this is the sole reason he won't win. Moderates fucking hate him over Jan 6. So we have completely disengaged moderate conservatives, big donors are walking away because they don't want to pay Trumps legal bills. State GOPs are bankrupt. And to top it all off, Trump is going to be in court all summer over __________ crimes
Meanwhile Biden has strong issues to campaign on: Abortion and threats to American democracy. We still haven't managed to hit a recession yet, even tho its been predicted for the last 3 years. Things are improving, albeit slowly. Also what nobody in the mainstream is considering: Polling is completely broken. Pew research did a poll and found that 12% of respondents were capable of operating a Nuclear Sub (the reality is less than 1%). Online polls pay per poll, people are very clearly just answering question as quickly as possible to get the pay outs.
I wish I had this amount of confidence in my fellow man. I fear this election is going to be just as close as the last two and it will be a coin flip in the end.
Yes, it IS pure hubris. He won most mutual states by a smaller margin than Hilary and he's currently behind in at least one of the swing states that cost her the election.
If he doesn't get his act together and stops turning droves away from voting at all, he's going to lose.
Just because I know some will trot out this strawman: no, I don't WANT him to lose. He's by far the lesser evil and if he loses to the mango Mussolini, there might not be another election.
Don't forget that the republican party has shrunk just in raw numbers. Covid deaths and people switching parties after jan 6 means even if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2024 it'd be a smaller number than if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2020.
The irony of killing off their own base by not taking covid seriously to own the libs.
If Democrats try just a little, I think you're right, and we could be seeing the complete collapse of the Republican party because of it. When special elections are flipping R+15 districts, and the reaction against the Dobbs decision has been so strong and sustained, then there's a message that will work in every district. Meanwhile, Republican fundraising has already dried up, and what funds they do have are going into Trump's mounting legal bills. The party has the wind knocked out of it, and if Dems would just fucking try rather than give them a moment to catch their breath, it would be a curbstomp.
But they need to fucking try.
It already cost Biden over a billion dollars in 2020 to win the electoral by a very small margin...
Weirdly topical, but I'm assuming they meant Naval Nuclear Engineers...
The ASVAB is typical standardized test where the best score is 99%. Weighted for when the test is taken.
So if only 1% could be a nuke, that would be assuming 100% of people take the test and the Navy only takes 99.
Now, I got a 99, and got into the program. But there was people in the high 70s as well. People could retake the test as many times as they want. And there is/was even a supplemental test people could take if their main ASVAB wasn't quite high enough.
So yeah, 12% of poll responders being able to do the toughest job of a nuclear sub doesn't sound right...
It's really much higher than that.
You didn't click the link did you?
The poll was about who is "licensed" not just "smart enough."
The on hyperlinked in the previous sentence that just says "polls are broken"?
No, I don't click on most links that don't say where they're going and sounc conspiracial. I'm on a phone and can't "hover" to see.
I just did tho:
So, OP read one thing, and then said another.
But that's about something factual, not an opinion like "who are you going to vote for".
And it is specifically about online opt in polls...
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/
Which is probably why OP decided to hide the link. You don't even need to read the title to realize why it's not relevant. The link says it plain as day.
But man, I've been overestimating people recently.
If you truly don't understand why "online opt in polls" are the worst kind of polling I can take the time to explain it. But it's basically like saying trump is selling shitty shoes so you've decided to go barefoot the rest of your life.
YouGov, SurveyMonkey, The Harris Poll, Morning Consult and Lucid are all online opt-in polls. Those polls, and others like them, are the ones that everyone uses to show that Trump is ahead of Biden.
The rest are generally random-digit dialing phone polls. Guess what: those are even worse.
Formating a hyperlink so it's embedded in text is more work than just putting the link...
But the multitasking does explain why you didn't notice it was an online opt in poll.
That was my issues. Your statistics, not your "journalism" while shitting.