No, on that score I fundamentally disagree. Ukraine has used its limited pool of armor extremely effectively, and even with a small, outdated airforce they've been able to utterly neutralize Russia's ability to bring its naval assets to bear. The reason air and armor haven't mattered as much in this war is simply because one side can't risk what they have, and the other side doesn't know how to use what they have.

Russia has not used these assets effectively because what they have is outdated, badly designed, and being operated by poorly trained crews with terrible doctrine. The reason Russian armor keeps getting popped by ATGMs isn't because Javelin and NLAW are wunderwaffen, it's because they'll park a fucking T-72 in the middle of an open fucking field with no infantry support, crew all buttoned down so they have no visibility, and then act surprised when someone pops a rocket at it.

The single most telling piece of footage from the initial invasion was a video of a Ukrainian squad firing an RPG at a Russian tank, then reloading and firing again from the exact same fucking position! There is no world where you should ever, EVER be able to do that. Against any competent military, the moment you let off that first rocket you should be running like fucking crazy because the entire area you are in is about to become a shooting range with you as the paper. There should have been multiple machine guns lighting up their position. Instead the Ukrainians are just calmly taking their time, reloading and popping another shot because they know the Russians have no infantry support and no situational awareness.

Same with Russian air power. They've been losing expensive planes and top of the line helos to MANPADs. Not high end stationary air defense systems like Patriot. Fucking MANPADs. Because their pilots are dogshit.

In an actual war with NATO, Russian artillery would be meaningless because every single gun would get deleted from the air the moment it fired (the US literally has radar systems that can detect the trajectory of incoming rounds and calculate exactly where they came from). But Ukraine can't do that because they barely have an airforce. Russia can't do that because they have an incompetent air force. So we get WW1 trench warfare. What neither side has is ground attack aircraft with a radar signature the size of a bumblebee. You throw that into the mix and suddenly you're going to see just how important air power really is.