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this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2024
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I've read a number of comments like yours and have always been curious about this sentiment.
I feel similarly iffy about the whole process. Despite that, I can't think of a viable alternative at this point in time that wouldn't lead to a disastrous result.
I genuinely want to know: if he does step down and give way to another candidate, who do you have in mind? Is it one person? Is it multiple? Or are we just hoping that if he steps down, a magical better candidate will show up?
Harris, Newsom, and Whitmer would probably be my top 3 picks for viability. Of those three, I think Whitmer would be my favorite choice, but I think Newsom would be the most pragmatic choice (and to be clear, there is a LOT I don’t like about Newsom, despite the fact that I align with him on a decent number of issues) in the context of electability (white, male, a touch religious but not overly so, charismatic, great public speaker). I think Harris is uninspiring and the wrong choice for a TON of reasons, but the establishment will probably stick with her if they are somehow forced to not go with Biden simply because she’s currently VP.
But, you know, that’s what primaries are supposed to be. We’re not really supposed to have the DNC essentially just playing kingmaker and doing cloak and dagger shit behind the scenes so their Chosen One ends up guaranteed to clinch the nomination. Unfortunately, the DNC is basically run by corporatist neoliberals at this point, so they aren’t interested in doing that… and they’re also unwilling to admit that such attitudes are precisely how we got here in the first fucking place.
We got Trump because “it was her turn”. And I will NEVER fucking forgive Hillary for that. It’s abundantly clear that the “adults in the room” at the DNC have no fucking idea what they’re doing.
Yeah, the best case scenario was Biden not running for 2024 from the beginning so we could have proper primaries, and align behind the winner. That's how it should have been handled.
But it's too late. None of the candidates you mentioned are strong enough to rally behind this late in the race. Each state would need to figure out a makeshift primary and then align, or DNC would have to choose, which would make it Harris by default. It would be an absolute disaster.
Would all those guys lose to Trump? Probably. Will Biden lose to Trump? Definitely. I'll take long odds over no odds.
No one polls better what are you smoking???
The real reason why no one polls better is that everyone else is a hypothetical right now Even if you phrase the poll as "If Biden backs out, and is replaced by $NAME, will you support $NAME?", people still have their own preferences and that will make it into the poll. They may be secretly hoping for AOC or Michelle Obama or Beyoncé, and say "No" because of that.
But after Biden leaves, if the question is "Now that the candidate is $NAME, will you support $NAME", I think you will find a lot of support rallying behind that person. Because there's no choice at that point.