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this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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Politics
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Same as during a non-incumbent primary. The person who won the most recent nomination tends to have an outsized voice in the selection of party officials (because it's their pledged delegates who vote on all the other stuff). Yes, that means Biden-affiliated insiders had an inside track in 2020, but that's also true of Clinton allies in 2016, Obama allies in 2012, Obama allies in 2008, and Kerry allies in 2004.
Which of those changes in the rules do you think were designed to benefit Biden specifically? De-emphasizing the role of Iowa and New Hampshire? There's been people clamoring for that for decades, within the party.
There's basically no set of rules that will ever create a credible challenge to an incumbent who wants to run for reelection. It's a popularity problem, not a structural problem.
It's not just about pledged delegates. The incumbent's campaign remains in control of the party during the primary. And in 2016, Hilary's campaign was literally in complete control of the DNC even prior to her getting the nomination despite not being an incumbent.
And she lost. Because it's a bad strategic move.
Uh, what was? Running Hillary? I agree. Giving her control of the DNC before the primary? Also agree.
Failing to run the incumbent was the bad strategic move. Also giving her control of the DNC, but Biden would have been an easy win at the time.
Like, I would have loved to see Sanders, personally. Strategically, though? If you're just thinking about getting a Democrat in the office? Biden was the play.
Hit on 16 in blackjack, run your incumbent in elections. The odds do, in fact, matter. The actual odds, not the figures arrived at by making a few hundred thousand cold calls and finding the people who actually want to talk about politics, as if that weren't a biasing factor in political position.
It was the end of Obama's 2nd term, and he couldn't run again. There was no incumbent.
Biden would have had the same chance in 2016 as Hillary. The entire reason Obama beat Hillary out in the 2008 primary was that people didn't want another white Centrist. The reason Biden won in 2020 was because of Trump, not because he was a good choice. He barely won.
Didn't work out for Trump, since he was so unpopular. Biden is also basically there, he's just less hated than Trump. But this time, a lot of people are going to sit out if they're not invigorated (as they were invigorated against Trump in 2020).
It's very convenient to wave your hand and make nebulous claims about the "actual odds" without any evidence. Polling is no longer mostly done via cold calls, it's mostly internet surveys, or via services that have paid-to-participate groups that are easy to control for, demographically.