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this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2024
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politics
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Picked it up from another post where the poster was posting the numbers and theorizing that polls got less accurate because they are getting mostly landlines as people don't tend to answer unknown numbers on their smart phones
That's correct. Very few people under 50 answer the phone if they don't recognize the number. Biden didn't underperform, and definitely not by 8%. Doesn't anyone remember Georgia?
Black women (and others) handed him an upset victory. Here's the polls: Biden was supposed to win by a percent.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/georgia/
He won by half a percent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Georgia
Yeah, whoever that is, dont listen to them. They do not know what they are talking about.
Here is the right answer:
https://lemmy.world/post/15291274?scrollToComments=true
Biden's results came in at an average of -4 to where polling in Oct/November told us he would be. Trump's results came in at an average of +8 to what we expected from the same polling window.
The data we have says that polls currently over estimate Democratic performance in presidential elections. In estimating polling advantage going into this, we should give Trump +8 like we saw in 2020 (we saw a similar number in 2016). We should give Harris a 0 (no advantage/ disadvantage).
This means that Democrats need to be +8 on Trump in the aggregate to break even. I think this is very very doable, but consider that Biden has been -1 to -10 on Trump for over 500 days. This would translate to a -13 to minus -23 polling disadvantage for Biden. Its why everyone who knows anything has been saying Biden doesn't stand a chance since December.