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this post was submitted on 13 Aug 2024
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Explain Like I'm Five
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It may have just been a matter of opportunity, too. You can bet the Ukrainians have a lot of eyes in Russia, and will be able to see if they leave a flank open.
It also forces Russia into a defensive war where they have already committed all their forces for an Offensive war. This will force Russia to either give up parts of Russia, or withdraw troops from Ukraine to retake parts of Russia. And also I've seen reports that Ukraine is having to slow progress because of processing surrendering Russian soldiers.
I figure once Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine to reinforce itself, Ukraine will likely pull back and swoop in and take their territory back.
Then we'll see where this goes, either Putin will withdraw and try to get peace, or he'll act like a cornered animal, and will get more unpredictable and erratic. There is always the chance that Ukraine will refuse peace talks and just keep marching on Moscow too. Either way, by pushing into Russia they are changing the dynamic of the war drastically and can finally put Russia on the defensive without worrying about losing support from NATO allies.
Interesting strategy, can't stop them, but their usual tactic of throwing bodies at the problem is kinda working out for them. You can't move on to Moscow if you're too busy securing the POWs.
The body mass tactic only works as long as those are able bodies. On defense were the oldest soldiers with lower quality equipment, with less motivation and ability to put up a fight. Hence the mass surrenders. Because all the young and easily compelled to fight were already on Ukraine. Now they will have to shuffle the forces, weakening the entire line and halting the recent offensives. An effective soldier can't fight in two fronts at once. Even if the progress is slow due to mass surrenders, you're still better off putting soldiers out of combat without losing territory (actually gainning it), instead of what was happening before.
It's also going to be interesting, how it affects morale on the Russian side. If Putin's propaganda machinery works, he'll spin it as an aggression from Ukraine and a reason for soldiers to defend their country and whatnot.
But, while it's always difficult to judge this from the outside, I cannot imagine that Russians don't know that this whole conflict was an aggression from Russia towards Ukraine. So, it will very likely lead to a lot of pressure to withdraw troops from Ukraine, not only to defend where necessary, but also to put this whole power trip to rest.