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this post was submitted on 09 Sep 2024
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Important to note, these forecasts are absolutely subject to change. This is not Nostradamus. It is merely reading the polls and factors as they stand. If Harris obliterates Trump tomorrow then this flips. If everyone donates enough money this week and the DNC gets more ground network for their get out the vote efforts, then this flips
All the model guys are very clear about this.
What's driving this current Trump run in the models is the lack of a convention bump for Harris. Models automatically tune a candidate's chances down by about 10 percent after their convention because it's usually a bit of a honeymoon period. It's been pointed out though that she may have had her honeymoon period after taking over from Biden. In which case the odds are more like 46/54.
The takeaway from this is that this election is incredibly close right now. Even at 36/64 it is very close. Both candidates need to run near perfect campaigns to have a chance of winning.
What the fuck? How can this "race" even be close? How brain-dead emotional are the voters? There are two candidates, you choose the person who's ideals and directions you believe in? How is the election process surprisingly similar to an ADHD kindegarten with a nominated side whose campaign is metaphorical shit slinging??
My parents believe whatever slop is thrown at them, so it doesnt surprise me.
Mine too. They want to believe, so they do.
There are still people that distrust government as a general principle AND still believe the GOP is the party of "small government" so they will vote for whatever name is next to the R.
There's a lot of Gen X and Millennials who were raised to automatically sit between the parties and ignore all the noise about each party being evil. To try and make an active decision, rather than just being a fan. From 1960 to 2000, that wasn't horrible advice for the average person. But now it's led them into considering Trump and Harris as equals because they've ignored all "the noise" about Trump.
That's my opinion anyways. It's what I've encountered in many places.