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this post was submitted on 04 Oct 2024
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politics
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Polls were historically accurate in 2022. To say they are meaningless makes no sense.
I have my concerns about the election for sure. But you claimed she is on pace for losing, the numbers suggest otherwise. Your hand wringing is not a good replacement for actual analysis.
I am 100 not saying the polls are wrong. However 538 completely changed when Nate Silver left. They are a shell of their former self and their models are a joke. No one should be taking them seriously. The weights and polls 538 was including in it's aggregate has Biden to win when he was polling at 37%.
If you want good polllingnirnmodelinf silver bullets, nates personal project is far superior.
I am 💯 a polls nerd and check my posts for some analysis I've done.
Go back to the data on 2020. Biden under performed his polling across the board. He was leading and did win, but not nearly the the margins he should have.