The thing is, where Putin has oligarchs that would dump him in a hot second if he dropped a bomb, Trump is absolutely eager to blow shit up and doesn't care / can't process the consequences of dropping the first nuclear bomb in hostility^†^ and breaking the black ice.

In Trump's first term no-one in the Department of Energy or the Department of Defense brass were MAGA loyalists, even though many considered themselves Republican, conservative and endorsed US military interventionism and adventurism. So when they were told (for instance) to nuke the snot out of North Korea to give them what for, Mattis was there to say no. None of the later secretaries of defense under Trump (Shanahan, Esper, Spencer, and Miller) would have authorized a nuclear strike either. And if one of them did, the generals under them were likely to resign than carry out such an order.

Enter Project 2025's Schedule F plan, which is going to retire all the old brass US loyalists that are sworn to defend the Constitution of the United States (and mean it) and replace them with Trump loyalists, who, when asked to launch a nuclear strike against somewhere in the other side of the world will say Yes Sir! (or By Your Command ) or ( With Pleasure ) whatever the going evil-empire affirmative salute is.

So it is a ~~likely possibility~~ ~~non-zero~~ not-insignificant possibility President Donald J. Trump will order a nuclear strike during his second term, and it will be carried out by the department of defense. He still really wants to express his fire and fury and show the world his dick is absolutely the biggest.

I thought about this during Trump's first term (and pondering the possibility of Hope, Montana getting nuked -- three times! -- at the end of Far Cry 5 ), imagining that unlike Greg Stillson in The Dead Zone bullying his principals to launch a first strike, Mattis would be there, steak-knife in hand to save the world from a rogue president. He actually did, just without the confrontation or the need of a steak-knife. But it means the Heritage Foundation is forewarned this time.

† Yes, technically two atomic bombs have been dropped in hostility, but after Castle Bravo / Bikini Atoll we quietly shifted from the atomic age to the nuclear age. It's a significant difference. Hiroshima had about a 15KT yield (12-18KT estimated) while Bikini Atoll had a 15MT yield (that's 1000x Hiroshima). US Peacekeeper missles carry ten MIRV 0.5MT warheads and bombs dropped from airplanes are 2.1MT. So yeah, we've had atomic war, but not nuclear war.