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this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2024
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And now do some basic Google Foo and find out what is manufactured in Taiwan. If China gets it's way, because Trump thinks Xi is cool and he's a good guy, China will just waltz in - TSMC, ASML and Trumpf have some safeguards in place as far as I know to destroy anything valuable. So while you might want to buy shit, you can't because the Cheeto and his cronies collapsed it.
That would in long term be good. I'm serious. Keeping all your eggs in one basket is bad, and other than that - said one basket may, for example, not scale production fast enough so to keep profits, that's basic supply and demand and that's what oil producers do too.
Short term, though, would be similar to a collapse of civilization.
Would it? Civilization doesn't depend on bleeding edge high tech. Sure, it depends on tech, but look around who's making ICs or basic processors that are in machine control panels and all the millions of appliances. AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom do the "heavy lifting" in terms of monetary value, but in overall quantity? Samsung, SK Hynix, STMicroelectronics, Infineon, Sony, Renesas and NXP are the ones that make the world go round. Infineon is German, NXP is Dutch, Renesas is Japanese, STMicroelectronics is Swiss. The thing that's really going to hurt is Foxconn, but they are probably global enough to withstand that. There's also many, many more local players. BOSCH for example has very high capacities for everything up to 80 Nanometers (Pentium 3/4, Athlon 64...)
Civilization would crack, sure - but i don't think it would collapse. Society on the other hand...that's a different paper.
I meant that too. But would actually be interesting, if electronics around us would still be a normal thing, but smartphones changing every year and carelessly used computing power will not. I think it would feel like waking up from a fever dream.
I mean, "change" per se isn't necessarily something bad. Meaning, stuff needs to last longer (again) in those cases. Planned Obsolescence is a real thing, that's however only economical as long as raw materials are relatively cheap. But it would be nice if companies just did that change, instead of being forced in to it...
The issue is - tariffs and regulations already exist and force them the other way in fact. So the matter of purity doesn't suffer here. Relatively.