back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now
Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.
I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.
The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).
Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.
Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Romanian presidential elections today. I'm gonna try to make a small effort post about the main candidates and what their deal is.
I'm gonna start listing them from most likely to least likely to become president.
Romania is a semi presidential republic, so not its not something like the German system, where who the president is doesn't really matter, with the president being in charge of appointing the prime minister, representing the country abroad and imposing a state of emergency (this was done during covid). Currently the main political issues being discussed are the rising costs for basic goods, with the prices for groceries exploding after the pandemic, obviously, the war in Ukraine, happening right at the border, us trying to get into Schengen and the possible involvement, as always, of the Secret Services in the electoral process. Out of the nations of the Eastern EU members, Romania seems like the most stable politically, but that's only because it is one of the most undemocratic "democracies" in the EU, being ruled by the same group of people, but under different names since the "Revolution". All candidates are Atlantophiles, some less, some to the point of parody, all right, from center to far right and all socially conservative.
So, lets start with the most likely one to win.
The Buzău Pretzel Seller: Marcel Ciolacu, party affiliation: PSD (Social Democratic Party)
Ciolacu is the incumbent prime minister of Romania and is the representative of the most influential political formation of post communist Romania, which traces its lineage to the FSN (Front of National Salvation), the entity formed by the members of the communist party who ousted Ceaușescu in 1989 and took control of the country. This formation was headed by Ion Iliescu and ruled Romania unchallenged for the duration of the 90s. I will go over the history of each party in the post I will make next Sunday, when the parliamentary elections will take place, so this is just to give you an idea of who's backing each candidate. Long story short, this pollical group is the main force in Romanian politics, with them switching names over the 90s and 2000s and now going under the name of PSD.
Ciolacu- the person and his policy proposals
Prior to the Revolution, he was a worker at a cooperative. No one really knows what he did during the revolution, but he fought fiercely to get and keep his Revolutionary certificate. (Context: Having a revolutionary certificate entitles you to a monthly stipend and grating property previously owned by the state, basically the state gives you land for being a good "revolutionary"). I'm not gonna bother listing the numerous corruption scandals each candidate was involved in (one less than the others, but that's about it). had ties to previous party leaders that were convicted on charges of corruption, yadda, yadda. His "proposals" are the standard socdem promises that never get fulfilled, less taxes for the poor, bigger pensions. Also the "reindustrialization" of Romania. All candidates have a pro-Atlanticist foreign policy, so I'm not gonna mention foreign policy beyond this point.
Romanian Hillary Clinton: Elena Lasconi, party affiliation: USR (Save Romania Union)
Newest leader of the Save Romania party, a group formed in 2016 with the purpose to create a new party that wasn't connected to the old corrupt ones, a youth movement that had no real direction, no real identity beyond "We want change" and "Corruption bad", had some initial success, being the third largest political party for a time, and being part of the government during the pandemic, but he since split and decayed into multiple parties and now its kind of a husk of what it was. Its lack of identity was its downfall and its now captured by libertarian atlanticists. Basically, it the most pro-US compromised party, vexingly, many of the diaspora and youth will vote for it.
Lasconi- the person
She was a journalist, became the mayor of her town, and was put in charge of the corpse of the party this year. Hippy aunt vibes, the only somewhat socially progressive candidate on account of having a progressive daughter, though she did vote yes on the referendum for the traditional definition of the family and got a lot of shit from it from her daughter and now supports civil partnerships, but not marriage. Also hosted one of those "Ancient Aliens" type shows in the 2000s. Had some Hillary type "Pokemon to the Polls" type stunts where she went to music festivals. Her proposals are vile, barring the socially progressive ones, some highlights include school choice type stuff and making the making the healthcare system more similar to the one in America.
Bob the Builder: George Simion, party allegiance: AUR (Alliance for the Unification of Romanians)
The AFD of Romania, formed on the centenary of the Great Union, on the first of December 2019, it is the party of the vilest chuds, courting with legionarism (the Legion of the Archangel Michael was the Romanian Nazi Party during WW2 and played a great role in the unfolding of the Romanian participation in the Holocaust) and general fascism. It is the most reactionary party, anti EU, but pro NATO, has ties with the Republicans and Orban. Often accused of being Russian agents, had a split in 2021 with the pro Russsian and still antisemitic part of the party, was antimask and it was formed from a number of movements that wanted Moldova to be unified with Romania, as well as what remained of the ultranationalist Great Romania Party of the 2000s.
Simion-the person
Started out as an anti-Iliescu protester, got into business, did some tax evasion. Not allowed to enter Ukraine or Moldova, most likely on the Myrotvorets kill list. His wedding in 2022 was done after the model of the wedding of Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the father of Romanian fascism and the founder of the Legion. His policy proposals are what you'd expect. The reason he's Bob the Builder is because he has some bullshit plan about building new homes only priced at 35.000 euros. Cutting social benefits "for those who don't need them", Churches being able to administer social services and other horrible shit.
KGB NATO-ist: Mircea Geoană, independent
Deputy Secretary General of NATO, habitual loser. Was a prominent member of PSD, being the presidential candidate in 2009, lost, and then was kicked out of the party later, in 2011 when he tried to run again. Came from a well connected family in the communist regime, became part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs just three months after the revolution and the youngest ambassador to the US. Comically corrupt politician, heavily tied to Iliescu, running on an anticorruption campaign. Heavily funded by someone, no one knows who. He plagiarized the speeches of Clinton and Bush in his doctorate thesis and his daughter copied the speech of Trumps niece when she was asked why she supports him. Also strangely has some AI grift policies, wanting to institute AI in classrooms as teaching aides. Erdogan-like foreign policy, rabidly pro-NATO, but has also gone out to say the war in Ukraine should end with Ukraine ceding territories. Also accused of being in Russia's pocket.
The "Hero" of Nasiriyah: Nicolae Ciucă, party allegiance: PNL (National Liberal Party)
The right splinter of the FSN, mirror to the "left" PSD, they are the republicans to the PSD's democrats. Have now fallen off hard, on account of the current liberal president being comically corrupt. Klaus Iohannis, the "ficus" , named so because of how slow he speaks and how little he does, did fuck all during his presidency and mainly took luxury trips overseas in private jets and financed himself a nice villa using public funds. A party dead in the water, now polling at below 10%, when they were once second after PSD, their electoral campaign has been a disaster, bringing the dumbest people to debates, Ciucă included.
Ciucă-the person
The Romanian Petr Pavel, participated in all the NATO imperialist interventions of the 21st century, that being his claim to fame, became a general, rose meteorically as Minister of Defense in 2019, then PM just two years later, he was instrumental in helping Iohannis build his villa and was one of the architects of the current coalition government, which I like to call the reunited FSN, as its made up of both the PSD and PNL. He pledged in 2018 to not get into politics, the following year, he did, the myth around him playing any role during the battle of Nasiriyah was thoroughly debunked, he will most likely get kicked out of his own party come next year and he is barely literate.
Other candidates
Kelemen Hunor, party allegiance: UDMR (Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania)
Ethnic minority party, usually gets around 5%, mostly has a role in getting coalitions over the electoral threshold.
George Călinescu, independent
Old friend of Simion, Russophile reactionary.
Ana Birchall, independent
Cristian Diaconescu, independent
Two old friends of Geoană, irrelevant, corrupt. Also formerly part of PSD.
Cristian Terheș, independent
Another reactionary with ties to AUR.
And that should be it. I may use this post to post updates later in the day about the results. Also, I took most of this information from a video by Silviu Faiăr, a liberal youtuber.
Video link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvlQWvm3sdw
Thanks for the write-up! Really interesting how the fact that Eastern European countries are experiencing similar material conditions also leads to them developing nearly identical political scene.