146
submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] SoyViking@hexbear.net 7 points 28 minutes ago* (last edited 4 minutes ago)

Two headlines from the website of centre-lib mainstream state media DR:

  • The ICC issues arrest warrant for "Israel's" prime minister
  • The terror organisation Hamas applauds arrest warrant

I fucking hate western journalism

Edit: In one of their news updates these spineless slimeballs writes that the arrest warrant is likely to "complicate the efforts to negotiate a ceasefire to end the 13 month long conflict".

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 15 points 55 minutes ago

walrus man bloodfeast checking-in

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 20 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 37 minutes ago)

ICC woke up wowee

russian guidance for icbm so shit they missed kiev by 1000 kms.

Weird news all around

*big brainy take, maybe iran gave them one of their thingies with shorter range

[-] kleeon@hexbear.net 10 points 54 minutes ago

russian guidance for icbm so shit they missed kiev by 1000 kms

missed washington by 8000 kms*

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 13 points 1 hour ago

russian guidance for icbm so shit they missed kiev by 1000 kms.

Lol. But last night the Kh-101 cruise missiles did a weird flight path, they flew to Kyiv, did a u turn there, and hit their targets in the East. Combined with the ICBM/IRBM launch against Dnipro with 6 Multiple Re-entry Vehicles per strike, it seems that a clear message is being sent.

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 12 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 59 minutes ago)

Message to whom though? Z-man clearly doesn't give a shit about anybody, amerikkkans don't give a shit about ukrainians. Obvious impasse resolution is either remove z-man, make ukrainians remove z-man (via electricity, cause can't just use normal store bought assassins, as that's uncivil), or escalate with one of the doggies (brits) embassies, who can't realistically interfere

Threatening nuclear before like doing decapitation attempts is wildly daft, even by russian standards

[-] someone@hexbear.net 1 points 8 minutes ago

Why would the Russian government want to remove the current Ukrainian leadership? They're completely predictable. That's a nice trait to have in an adversary.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 14 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

More funny shit from the failed assassination attempt against Lula da Silva, Geraldo Alckmin (VP, probably known for posting Wojak and other memes on his twitter account) and Supreme Court Judges Alexandre de Moraes (The one that fucked with Elon Musk) and Flavio Dino (Brazilian Communist Party Member and Former Governor). They were using their whatsapp group (yes, they were using this shit to plot a coup), they named their group "Copa 2022", to pretend it was a World Cup group but also because Copa sounds like Coup. Coup 2022. Holy fucking shit these people are fucking stupid, they fucking had a document with the whole coup only changing some of the names of people they wanted to kill/arrest, they left the files on the printer, and the printer was literally inside Lula's Office (which was Bolsonaro's office before). No fucking wonder they couldn't do shit, and the US/CIA was against this.

[-] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 7 points 57 minutes ago

So the ICBM was there to tell NAFO that Russian ICBMs actually work. They will probably do a nuclear test as well.

[-] TechnoAnomie@hexbear.net 33 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 22 minutes ago)

isntrael

ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant

“The Chamber issued warrants of arrest for two individuals, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Yoav Gallant, for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024”, a statement from the court said.

There are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Gallant and Netanyahu “intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity”, the statement continued, covering only part of the allegations against them.

The court also rejected two Israeli challenges to its jurisdiction, saying “the acceptance by Israel of the Court’s jurisdiction is not required, as the Court can exercise its jurisdiction on the basis of territorial jurisdiction of Palestine”.

Maybe it matters, I dunnow. Still happy. Interested to see the fallout on anti-zionism laws and censorship. If amerikkka still intends to blame it on a couple of people, we're way passed the point where that could possibly work.

EDIT: Now detailed at the Electronic Intifada. Of note, IMO

The arrest warrants are classified as ‘secret’, in order to protect witnesses and to safeguard the conduct of the investigations. However, the Chamber decided to release the information below since conduct similar to that addressed in the warrant of arrest appears to be ongoing. Moreover, the Chamber considers it to be in the interest of victims and their families that they are made aware of the warrants’ existence.

At the outset, the Chamber considered that the alleged conduct of Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant falls within the jurisdiction of the Court. The Chamber recalled that, in a previous composition, it already decided that the Court’s jurisdiction in the situation extended to Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Furthermore, the Chamber declined to use its discretionary proprio motu powers to determine the admissibility of the two cases at this stage. This is without prejudice to any determination as to the jurisdiction and admissibility of the cases at a later stage. [...] each bear criminal responsibility for the following crimes as co-perpetrators for committing the acts jointly with others: the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.

The Chamber also found reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant each bear criminal responsibility as civilian superiors for the war crime of intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.

No idea on the technicalities of law, but this is is probably a deep open wound on the "rules-based order" that is not getting closed if they manage to manipulate a dismissal.

[-] IceWallowCum@hexbear.net 17 points 1 hour ago

Let's see how the "rules based world order" pans out now

(We'll at most just see bibi get thrown to the dogs though, while the genocide goes on anyway)

[-] SummerIsTooWarm@hexbear.net 19 points 1 hour ago

How long will it take for the western world to say that the ICC is antisemitic?

[-] CommunistBear@hexbear.net 11 points 1 hour ago

Negative 8 months or however long ago it was that the plans were first announced

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 6 points 1 hour ago

Is it trying to save their "prestige" under trumpy regime? Why now?

[-] sisatici@hexbear.net 19 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

Damn it. I was gonna post that. Anyways

Holly shit major development. I know they are lib institutions but I am glad they have done something right. They could have easily acted as if nothing happened after learning their role.

[-] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 15 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

i want to see all the paperwork involving U.S. and other Zionist groups that lead to this taking so long.

[-] Voidance@hexbear.net 3 points 37 minutes ago* (last edited 36 minutes ago)

a difficult event in the hague

[-] Halloweenbean@hexbear.net 18 points 3 hours ago

I just realized that the reason china wants to keep using US dollars is because it inflates American currency so they can keep cranking out market competitive cheap imports. Trump wants to devalue the currency which they won't help him do.

[-] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 6 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 59 minutes ago)

i mean, the natural state of their economy (large trade/current surpluses) means their currency would be in high demand even without them doing much intervening with Dollars, especially given they have tight controls over capital flows.

the big "issue" in the 2000s was the west claiming China was keeping Yuan undervalued and undermining U.S. trade competitiveness. However, because of the way U.S. Capitalists nurtured China and how large of a production hub it is, it was unlikely that even an appreciating Yuan under a flexible exchange rate would have reduced their trade/current surpluses given the high global demand for Chinese goods and lack of production elsewhere.

China abandoned its fixed exchange rate in 2005 and moved to managed float, their currency appreciated (or was allowed to appreciate) over 15%, yet that didn't stop China's rise.

and I believe that is the case still, U.S. can try devaluing all it wants, it will barely dent imports because China is willing to hold U.S. Dollars and U.S. is willing to provide it to them.

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 26 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

The business-school scandal that just keeps getting bigger
Business schools are having the same kind of reproduction/fabrication issues that have previously come up in psychology programs. Pretty large portions of the field are looking to be outright wrong, with some speculation that the ability to turn these studies into consulting positions or books is creating significant pressure to fake results.

[-] FloridaBoi@hexbear.net 9 points 1 hour ago

Among the four research papers in which Gino was accused of cheating is one about the human tendency to misreport facts and figures for personal gain. Which is to say: She was accused of faking data for a study of when and how people might fake data.

Hell yeah. I loved business school because it was clearly bullshit outside of accounting and finance since those were about the application of rules for recording transactions and estimating values (still bullshit), and using quantitative metrics (sort of bullshit)

[-] Nacarbac@hexbear.net 8 points 2 hours ago

The entire field of popsci business insight is just a stream of Jabberwocky, in hopes your connections sell a ton of garbage to some of the most credulous and desperate rubes on the planet - mid-level corpos. The place that I work in, uses the Net Promoter Score idiocy, which didn't even work for the niche it was intended for, but they now misapply to customer ratings.

Some of that is possibly from the functional use of invalid metrics - as they invariably produce "underperforming" results which can be used as a whip against stores and store management. A single "detractor" causes a tick up in baseline stress and overwork.

[-] TechnoAnomie@hexbear.net 4 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

More than metrics, my long distance impression is that it's mostly convenient correlations on a self-selected sample, with very little reflection on possible bias. On both fields, alas.

[-] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 1 points 2 hours ago

I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 5 points 1 hour ago

Read through the titles and premises of the studies and books cited throughout this article, it's all shit like what Matt yglesias would read in an airport. I can't imagine being an "academic" of that kind of vapid garbage and that's before any assessment of fraud. Why are these people paid so much compared to useful work?

[-] SubstantialNothingness@hexbear.net 23 points 5 hours ago
[-] MLRL_Commie@hexbear.net 10 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

The Ukrainian air force said the missile was fried from the Russian region of Astrakhan, more than 700 km (435 miles) from Dnipro in central-eastern Ukraine. It did not specify what kind of warhead the missile had or what type of missile it was. There was no suggestion it was nuclear-armed.

grillman

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 11 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

Video evidence of the blasts in Dnipro appears to show that. Multiple MIRVs/MRVs or HGVs impacting at incredible speeds, Mach 20+.

Video 1, alternative xcancel link

Video 2, alternative xcancel link

Video 3 alternative xcancel link

Video 4 alternative xcancel link

Video 5 on Reddit

[-] someone@hexbear.net 9 points 1 hour ago

Never has the phrase "the medium is the message" been so appropriate.

[-] SummerIsTooWarm@hexbear.net 8 points 2 hours ago

Do you have a link for the videos?

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago

I have multiple, I'll put the links up now.

[-] SummerIsTooWarm@hexbear.net 5 points 1 hour ago
[-] kittin@hexbear.net 25 points 6 hours ago

Biden's Vaunted 'Allies & Partners' Have Their Own Ideas

A significant step toward this strategic realignment came as China’s President Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the BRICS platform to pledge further rapprochement, signaling a deepening partnership that challenges Western assumptions about regional alignments. This evolving partnership within BRICS could signify a broader trend of strategic cooperation, where Asian powers prioritize regional stability and economic integration over the security-driven approaches favored by Euro-Atlantic nations.

In Japan, newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has repeatedly advocated for revising the Japan-U.S. Forces Agreement, suggesting a push for Japan to develop its own military strategy. He proposed the establishment of Japanese bases in Guam and a “nuclear sharing” agreement with the U.S., arguing that the current arrangement is “unequal” and emphasizing Japan’s need for security autonomy.

Southeast Asian states also demonstrated their push for greater autonomy at the 44th Annual ASEAN Summit in Laos, where leaders prioritized economic integration and regional cooperation over defense concerns. Topics such as digital trade, supply chain management, sustainable agriculture, and environmental protection took precedence, highlighting a pragmatic approach to regional growth. Only the Philippines prioritized the discussion of South China Sea tensions, setting its foreign policy apart from other ASEAN states, which appear to prefer detachment from contentious security issues.

This series of events in October represents more than isolated incidents; collectively, they illustrate a structural realignment within Asia. The region is moving away from a paradigm where Euro-Atlantic nations drive security policies, evolving into a complex network of relationships less dependent on Western influence. Increasingly, the paths for countries throughout Asia are being defined by their own strategic calculations, which often conflict with the West's Indo-Pacific agendas.

Western miscalculations have also expedited this shift. For example, Western powers have built their Indo-Pacific strategies on the assumption that India would remain a reliable partner in counterbalancing China. Countries like the U.S., UK, Australia, and others saw India as a stable anchor with a steadfastly adversarial stance toward Beijing. But India’s actions this October, including its rebuffed attempt to reconcile with Canada after accusations of extraterritorial actions, reveal a more nuanced and independent approach to its foreign relations.

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 21 points 6 hours ago

Americans when other countries have agency: biden-horror

[-] Halloweenbean@hexbear.net 6 points 3 hours ago

The agency is literally just giving Japan what it was denied during ww2

[-] FunkYankkkees@hexbear.net 12 points 5 hours ago

I feel that these are more accurate
obama-drone nuke the-gunman

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this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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