CoolerOpposide

joined 5 years ago
MODERATOR OF
[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 9 points 1 week ago

He also claims to be a 7th degree black belt in Cajun Karate Keichu, which was invented by his dad to be the first ever “100% American Christian karate”

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

charlie-kirk isnt there somebody you forgot to include?

 
[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 3 points 1 week ago

Yes of course, I’m just making commentary on likely ways they’d act against her

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

She’s already stated she’s not going to comment on the posts at all, which I’d say is an anti-denouncement in its own way

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

The vote to expel her is the one thing I think they might try. It depends on whether or not the want to let her sit and use her to attempt to constantly scandalize and humiliate the left, both electoral and not.

I don’t think it’d even be hard to get a critical mass of Dems on board with removing her. A decreasing but still large amount of the country identifies with anti-communism, probably enough to pull it off. Way more politically effective for them to use/humiliate her than to kill

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Liberals mad he did a socialist January 6th or something idk

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 16 points 1 week ago

Got it! Then I completely agree

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 27 points 1 week ago

She was one of the people who got arrested at Columbia for protesting against the Israeli genocide and then ran for office as a socialist openly. I think it’s pretty safe to say she holds these views genuinely

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 37 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (8 children)

If deleting the posts is the difference between a genuine Marxist-Leninist getting elected into a position of power vs not, then deleting posts is good.

Big online-is-not-real-life moment here. Keeping a shitposting Twitter account is not doing more praxis than like… having a meaningful say in whether your state is able to more effectively facilitate a genocide

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 12 points 1 week ago

All I have to say is that it would be really nice in a time where Israel is such a mainstream issue to point to one person in congress voting to not send them weapons to commit genocide and saying “yes, that one is the socialist”

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 23 points 1 week ago

The most active cadre tend to be far more often Marxist than paper members

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 16 points 1 week ago

She’s not losing that district to a Republican in November let’s be real. This issue matters realistically to almost nobody. People already knew they were voting for somebody at least using the label “socialist”

 

Link to the article here

Article text:

Darializa Avila Chevalier, the Democratic congressional nominee endorsed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who ousted longtime Rep. Adriano Espaillat in Tuesday’s primary, maintained a since-deleted Twitter account with repeated sympathetic references to communism, Marxist ideology and Soviet figures, including Vladimir Lenin.

Avila Chevalier, a sociology PhD student whose victory sent shockwaves throughout the Democratic establishment, has been under fire for a since-deleted Twitter account, previously reported by CNN, that included phrases such as “seize the means of production,” along with calls to abolish police, prisons and borders. Other controversial tweets include one that said Black and Arab men are both “Fetishizing ugly colonizer women” and another that described wiping her dirty hands on the American flag in lieu of a napkin.

As an undergraduate, Avila Chevalier attended Columbia University, where she organized with Students for Justice in Palestine, and after graduation became involved in pro-Palestinian campus protests over Israel’s war in Gaza. She also attended a controversial October 8, 2023, pro-Palestinian rally in Times Square — one day after Hamas’ attack on Israel — that featured speeches and rhetoric praising the attack.

She previously told CNN, “I have grown considerably in the years since these tweets, and I am focused on our community and our community’s future.”

On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Avila Chevalier of being a communist, a charge that she said she wouldn’t respond to while on MSNOW, saying, “I won’t be reactive.”

A further review of Avila Chevalier’s archived Twitter account from 2020-2022 found repeated references to communism and Marxist ideology. The account, “Darializabonet,” appears to have been deleted in June 2022.

The account’s bio read in 2020, “how communist of you.” Archived posts and retweets during this timeframe included a recommendation that Karl Marx’s Capital was an “essential must-read,” a complaint that public libraries did not carry enough Marxist literature by Lenin and other revolutionary writers, and a retweet from a Communist-identifying account lamenting that bookstore “banned books” displays did not include The Complete Works of J. V. Stalin.

One archived retweet from 2020 quoted Assata Shakur, the former Black Liberation Army member who, in 1977, was convicted in the murder of a New Jersey state trooper before later escaping prison and fleeing to Cuba. In the quote, Shakur said she “preferred Ho Chi Minh, Kim Il Sung, Che, or Fidel (Castro)” before studying Marx and Lenin because the two “white dudes” had made contributions to “revolutionary struggle” that were “too great to be ignored.”

In April 2020, Avila Chevalier shared a post lamenting that people wouldn’t accept communism over a lack of varieties of soup – a reference to the critique that the political system leads to fewer consumer choices.

“I just cannot get over the fact that the universe has foisted upon us the perfect illustration of literally every failing of capitalism and people are still like we can’t be communists cuz there won’t be enough types of soup,” the post she retweeted read.

Other posts critiqued or joked about popular culture she viewed as anti-communist.

In one post, Avila Chevalier described the animated film Anastasia as “an explicitly anti-USSR kid’s movie,” and in another post she linked to she wrote: “Time for me to once again sympathize with the people the Bolsheviks put in the blender for like 90 min 😌.”

Avila Chevalier was responding to a viral false claim that Disney had removed Anastasia from Disney+ streaming service because it was anti-Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

In another post, Avila Chevalier joked that Sheryl Crow’s hit song Soak Up the Sun was “bootstrap capitalist propaganda” after noticing it opens with the lyric “my friend the communist,” quipping that the character was “apparently also a bad organizer lol.”

Another 2020 retweet argued for democratic worker control of wealth, dismissing ideological labels by concluding: “You can call that communism, you can call it socialism, you can call it pancakes.”

And previously, CNN had surfaced an April 2020 post where Avila-Chevalier said that while most of the political theory she had read was communist, “the pyromania associated with anarchism is very intriguing to me,” punctuating the remark with a laughing emoji.

Ok I’ll say it: these posts are hilarious. Our first lefty shitposter congressperson

 
 

I can’t believe it. Actual on the nose burgerreich symbolism

 
 

Unskippable Preamble: I finally had the time to do this write up I promised after Zohran won the mayoral primary election. Campaigning was exhausting and then I ended up having a crazy hectic personal life that I could not have predicted! I do plan on giving this a bit more info and editing when I have the time/energy, but for now, this is my Zohran Campaign retrospective from the inside!

Who am I?

I am a NYC-DSA member. I am also a member of a communist caucus within DSA. I identify as a Marxist-Leninist but see value in being a member of the largest group of (for some, nominally) socialists in the country. I am somebody who knows Zohran as an acquaintance and volunteered for his first campaign, as well as more officially working for this mayoral campaign. I would say I am in the cusp second/third ring of people around him, and communication is typically campaign related, though we have mutual friends who are closer to him who have provided me with some insight I did not personally have.

Setting the Scene:

There has been talk of it for years now, and here we are in 2024 staring down the barrel of an Eric Adams VS Andrew Cuomo VS Curtis Sliwa election. Three conservatives running for mayor of the city with the largest group of organized socialists in the country.

Much like here on Hexbear, there have been talks within DSA for some time on the efficacy of not just continuing to run for political office on the Democratic ticket, but whether to run for political office at all.

spoiler (This is not intended to be a debate on electoralism, but I will give a brief explanation on my position and what is generally the position of Zohran + team.)

We are firmly in the camp of it being worth the effort to engage in electoralism, provided it is not the only goal of organizing efforts. There is immense value in tuning people in to socialism and socialist policy. After having its name dragged through the mud for over a century, there is a lot to be done in warming people up to the idea of socialism in the imperial core. We believe it is important to do as much as possible to crush deeply embedded cultural anti-socialism. :::

That Feeling When No Vanguard:

It was important to us to understand NYC-DSA as an organization beyond those who directly constitute its membership. We felt strongly that we must consider those who naturally align with the organization as a second, slightly less reliable but equally important, arm for doing organizing. This campaign was going to be made or broken by our ability to make people actually care about mobilizing for us. It is for this reason that as socialists, we had to ideologically run the campaign, not let the campaigning for office ideologically run us. That was the only thing that could separate us from being just another campaign with progressive dem ethos.

Thus, it was important that the campaign continue to have one clear vision throughout. The amount of volunteers we could drive to our campaign would be directly proportional to the amount of people we were reaching with our message. Watering it down would hurt us far more in the long run, and give other candidates room to budge in on messaging or flip flopping. If our message truly resonates, staying committed likely means growing our base and numbers of volunteers in the future.

The Early Vision: What Is to Be done?

So how do you run an ideologically socialist campaign for a city of people who would not have a plurality identify as socialists? Really, it’s simple: keep it materialist. Zohran mentioned early on that every contested campaign for office is a slog of neoliberal BS that people do not even hear anymore á la “Student loan debt forgiveness programs for Pell Grant recipients who start a business that operates for three years in economically disadvantaged communities.” Those that even stayed awake through that entire sentence are slapped in the face by how exclusionary this supposed inclusive and uplifting policy is supposed to be. Nobody was talking about anything other than the typical Kamala-like drivel in the NYC mayoral race, so we strategically set our sights on late October, just pre-presidential election. No matter the outcome, it would give us a good place to slot in our campaign as the only left lane option and only one relentlessly focused on material issues of affordability for New Yorkers in a way nobody else cared to.

Inevitably, Kamala lost and Zohran had a great idea to highlight exactly why, while simultaneously boosting our own campaign: go hit the streets and interview people about why they voted for Trump or didn’t vote for Kamala. He was out there for hours and hours and hours in the cold and wind getting the exact answers you and I already knew he’d get, “They don’t care about us.” ”Trump is at least saying he will bring down prices” ”Biden and Kamala are already in office, but what are they doing?”

It easily reaffirmed what we needed to say and do: New Yorkers can’t afford childcare, they can’t afford rent, they can’t afford transit, and they can’t afford their groceries. So so so many people were willing to take a risk on Trump just for saying he’d address things like that, despite already hating him. Why wouldn’t they consider taking a chance on us? Do they care more about the fact we are socialists or that they can’t put food on the table?

Never Tell Me the Odds: How to Be Competitive

If you’re running an election campaign, and you don’t actually care about policy you’re giving the majority of voters, who do you target? The people with a proven track record of voting. That is how >90% of democrats run their campaigns. The longer the track record, the more you target them. Voted in three consecutive primaries? By conventional dem logic, you should definitely get a knock on your door! But these strategies alone don’t typically work for a socialist candidate. Why? Our target demographic is inherently disenfranchised by electoralism. We need those who are likely to vote, but more importantly we need those who are only likely to vote for the right candidate. We were looking for people who live in progressive areas but haven’t recently voted. By “recently” I mean people who haven’t voted even once since Obama. We know we are not alone in feeling disenfranchised. Find people living in rent stabilized housing and tell them I know politics suck, but our guy is going to stop your rent from going up. Find south Asian and Muslim communities who vote in low numbers and tell them our guy knows your struggle. Find those who voted Obama and Trump ‘16 and tell them we are hurting too, and enough is enough. We want to put food on your table, keep a roof over your head, help you afford childcare so you can have the dignity you deserve.

Neoliberals have over-intellectualized politics to be some complex system that nobody can truly understand, but it really isn’t that hard if you’re willing to put in the work to actually reach those who need help.

We had a simple pitch: Here is our list of ideas. If they sound good to you, rank us somewhere on your ballot 1-5. We are happy to represent you whether we are your first or fifth choice for mayor, BUT DONT PUT CUOMO ON YOUR BALLOT AT ALL. Other major candidates were on board too, and cross-endorsed each other and Zohran. The most important amongst these was comptroller Brad Lander, who campaigned prominently alongside Zohran in the weeks leading up to the election. This was a key part of the strategy to win over the wealthy liberal who would hold their nose, but reluctantly vote for Zohran under the right set of circumstances. It also did a lot to dispel the mudslinging accusations of Zohran being an antisemite, as comptroller Lander himself was Jewish and stood up for Zohran on many occasions.

But Do You Condemn the Cost of Living Crisis?

I don’t want to be too cocky about this, but nearly every hurdle that was thrown at us was easily identified before we even were polling at 2%. The neoliberals are going to say all of the same things they’ve always said about socialists, but this time all we have to do is say something along the lines of, “and that’s bad why?” because normal people don’t think about things like this being a Trojan horse campaign so that we get to do executions in Central Park if Zohran got elected. This worked to much greater effect than anticipated, because while Zohran was all over the news and social media, the Cuomo campaign decided it was best to coast off of name recognition and hope people would just vote for him because of that and because he’s Not Zohran™. We constantly had nearly free airtime on the news and social media to make these people attacking Zohran for these “crazy policies” look like they actually hated the solutions that genuinely made sense to the working class. This hyper-focused campaigning ended up gifting us so many slam dunks. Nobody’s message was heard more loudly or clearly than ours, and it opened up the door to highlighting how other candidates/pundits don’t care about these issues the same way Zohran does. Long before Zohran was competitive in polls, I was saying he’s already the front runner in being seen as genuine. That alone doesn’t win elections, but it goes a long way when your competition is so NOT genuine.

What we weren’t prepared for, however, was the popular tide beginning to turn against Israel. Whether or not it was Trump being elected, Zohran unabashedly speaking about it, or just people finally having seen enough of Israel’s crimes, we were caught riding the wave as the exact right time. The other candidates and political pundits couldn’t stop talking about Zohran and Israel, and people were finally getting fed up. It reached a fever pitch at the end of a mayoral debate when candidates were asked a “lightning round” question where they were supposed to give a one sentence answer to the question: “Where will you make your first international trip as mayor of NYC?”

If you haven’t seen the debate, I don’t think I need to tell you that all of the candidates were tripping over each other to find a way to say “Israel” more enthusiastically than the last. When the question came to Zohran, he answered “I would stay here in New York City to do my job and address the needs of New Yorkers across the five boroughs.” At this point the Zohran HQ was hooting and hollering because that’s a great answer and we knew exactly what would happen next. The camera cuts back to the moderators, who tossed aside their rules to ask the only follow up questions of the entire lightning round:

Moderator: ”Mr. Mamdani, can I jump in here– Would you visit Israel as mayor?”

Zohran: ”As mayor I’ll be standing up for Jewish New Yorkers and meeting them wherever they are across the five boroughs, whether at synagogues or temples or subway platforms, because ultimately we need to focus on delivering on their concerns of–“ Moderator, sharply cutting Zohran off: ”Do you believe in a Jewish state of Israel?”

Zohran: ”I believe Israel has the right to exist”

Moderator: ”But as a Jewish state?”

Zohran: ”As a state with equal rights.”

I think it was in this moment that I knew it was over. They played themselves on live television. Even on the most astroturfed social media sites, all people were talking about was, “I didn’t know they were running for mayor of Israel.” The Israel line of questioning on Zohran fell apart before our very eyes. This isn’t a presidential debate. This is a local election (albeit a very large one). Why does a mayor need to believe in the right of Israel to exist? Why is this question even being asked when it broke the rules of the debate? What was wrong with saying he’d take care of New Yorkers?

This all played right into our hands. The other candidates are running the be mayor of New York City. Zohran is the only candidate running to be the mayor of the people of New York City.

The Deluge

Nothing was the same after this. The materialist elements of the campaign were not only no longer under fire, but other candidates were trying to adopt parts of them into their own campaigns. Other candidates were talking about a rent freeze. Zohran skyrocketed in polling, pulling statistically even with Cuomo in a few. Zohran couldn’t post a single video on social media with a view floor lower than several hundred thousand. Media was talking about Zohran 24/7.

I’ve never seen so many people register to vote before an election. I must’ve personally spoken to at least a hundred or so. That number ended up rising to 50K, and almost all went to Zohran. At this point the campaign had roughly 35K individual volunteers. I had people coming to New York from across the country to canvass for Zohran like it was the Spanish Civil War. People were taking the train in multiple times a week from Boston and DC. No matter what polls were saying at this point, personally it felt far beyond over. Cuomo couldn’t even get volunteers for his campaign, and often when I saw them in the field they were sitting down pretending to canvass to get paid that sweet $25 per hour the Cuomo camp threw around.

Zohran decided all of that it wasn’t enough though, and just five days before Election Day we decided on the biggest endeavor yet: Zohran was going to lace up his sneakers and walk the entire 14 mile (22.5km) length of Manhattan in one day. On Friday the 20th just before sunrise, he set out. At times, the walk felt more like a parade. Zohran was getting stopped and greeted. Honked at and cheered for. Selfies nearly every block. Dozens of people would join the group and eventually peel off a few blocks later, but it was very clear that this was not your average photo-op or campaign. People felt at home around Zohran, aunties were crying when they hugged him and shook his hand, tias talking about how jealous their daughters would be that they met him, babas talking sports and offering tea, gym bros stopping their jog for a few blocks just to walk with us. Very rarely does a politician feel like they truly love the place they represent, and even more rarely does it feel that the people of that place love their politician back. On that day, there was no doubt the feelings were truly mutual.

Zohran’s Mandate of Heaven + Election Day:

One week before Election Day, and a week of early voting began. This was our first real test. Polls had been rolling in for the past two weeks, many of them statistical ties between Zohran and Cuomo in the last round of ranked choice voting. We were riding a tsunami of support that didn’t seem to slow the two weeks leading up to this point. The tide was turning on Israel’s favorability, and Zohran was more popular than ever on social media. We set the campaign goal of canvassing 1 million doors by Election Day, and we went on to surpass even that. New voter registrations were as high on a day to day basis as total registrations during the last primary. Zohran was nervous but didn’t let it show publicly. As early voting began, any worries the rest of us had left were laid to rest. Record numbers of early voters were turning up to the polls. Double the amount of the previous primary season in all boroughs favorable to Zohran. Pundits and the Cuomo campaign were trying to chalk that up the it being the relatively early days of Covid, or Zohran exhausting his pool of young voters early on, but it didn’t feel that way on the ground. I’ve never canvassed so many people who already confirmed they were planning on voting for my candidate. I’ve never seen such enthusiasm before. This carried on through the weekend, and turnout didn’t slow. The Cuomo campaign was very scared at this point, and things were only looking worse for them from there.

Forecasts for Election Day across the city were sunny, approaching record highs of >100°F (>38°C). Not every polling place in NYC is air conditioned (first world country? world’s most influential city? Anyway…) Absolutely devastating conditions for Cuomo’s significantly older, thus more vulnerable crowd of voters, who have fewer polling places, and live in far less population dense parts of the city where the commute to their polling place is much greater. We could not have asked for a more perfect set of conditions for the Zohran Campaign. Truly, he held the Mandate of Heaven.

Zohran started the morning at sunrise with a surprise press conference in his favorite part of the city, Astoria Park. He reaffirmed our affordability message and his mayoral cross-endorsements, and then went on to canvass around the city. Cuomo was nowhere to be seen until nearly noon, when he drove two blocks in Manhattan from his $8500/month apartment to his polling place, where he then stated he ranked only himself on his ballot. The two situations could not be more emblematic of each respective candidate.

It was the absolute scorcher it was predicted to be, but turnout seemingly did not yield. At the end of the day, the Cuomo team was feeling nervous while we were feeling cautiously optimistic. Many thought it would take many days of ranked choice calculations to figure out who won. Almost all scenarios predicted that Cuomo would have a commanding lead in the first round, and how commanding that lead was would determine if Zohran had a chance in the later rounds.

As soon as the first results trickled in, the night was already over. No pollster had predicted anything like this. Zohran was holding a commanding lead of 7% over Cuomo in the first round, 36% to 43%. All bets were off. Cuomo conceded just a few hours later.

spoiler Retrospective

Our voter targeting strategy did indeed work out the way we had hoped. Turnout in NYC’s most progressive neighborhoods skyrocketed, as did turnout amongst youth, South Asian, Muslim, and infrequent voters. A very important part of reaching disenfranchised voters was being able to campaign in nearly 30 languages! That wouldn’t have been possible without our >50K volunteers that allowed us to target hyper-specific areas that are normally skipped over during campaigning. Some voters hadn’t received any information about a single other candidate.

Just how well did this work? Our best precinct was in City Line, deep in Brooklyn amongst Bengali Muslims, a group that is normally thought to lean conservative. We put up regime numbers there, with Zohran winning 207/227 votes. 91%. Our last count for a DSA candidacy there in 2022 was not even 10%.

Voter turnout was up across the board, but nowhere did voter turnout increase nearly as much as the most left-leaning areas around the city. But the story doesn’t end there. Latest polling in the four way mayoral race of Mamdani, Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa has KNOWN SOCIALIST Zohran polling in second place amongst self-identified conservative voters. Turns out that people will show up regardless of titles if you give them something worth voting for. That is the power of materialist analysis.

Campaigning is not over. In fact, it is just ramping up again for the general election. We anticipate an even greater effort to ensure there is no doubt that we have a mandate to deliver the solutions working people clearly demand. Please volunteer if you can! Even if you are not in NYC, you can phonebank from anywhere! We are always looking for volunteers, especially if you are multilingual! If you got this far, thanks for reading, and solidarity! :::

To Those Who Can Not Stand Zohran Or Discourse Surrounding Him:

I am very sorry and did not know about the Zohranposting ban outside of /electoralism. I promised to write this post long before that and never saw the discourse, so I am sorry that it’s crowding up your feed. I did my best to collapse the post down to be as small as possible! Either way, I hope maybe you enjoy a more detailed discussion about it instead! Thank you for your patience <3

 

Comrade DeBlasio states that he would bravely act as a human shield to protect Chairman Mamdani from the fascistic forces that wish to crush our people’s revolution.

All jokes aside, pretty cool to see DeBlasio stepping up to support Zohran the way he has, even if it’s mostly due to the DeBlasio-Cuomo blood feud. Most based thing DeBlasio has done since supporting the Sandinistas

 
 

”Give him a follow, he’s going to go far.”

 

An openly Democratic Socialist Candidate in the United States of America is now within striking distance of winning mayorship of the city that is the beating heart of American capitalism. In only 8 1/2 months of campaigning we have gone from 1% in the polls to now being the electoral favorite.

This is perhaps a long shot, but if you are reading this, we are still looking for people to work the phones for Zohran today and tomorrow! No requirement to live in NYC, just to have a US phone number. We have 9 different phonebanking times today and offer 27 second language options! We need all of the help we can get to win this, and every little bit helps. Please consider signing up for a shift here even if you can only make a few calls.

As somebody working for the campaign, I’m not really supposed to say this, but if you don’t feel comfortable using personally identifiable information, you can use a fake name, burner email, and Google voice number. I don’t really care. We need people working the phones. Zohran is not even above 90% name recognition yet among potential voters, and 4% of voters are still undecided. If even one of you signs up, please let me know so I can recognize you for your efforts to the community here.

 
 

JERUSALEM — Since Friday, the same dramatic exchange has played out more than a half-dozen times over the skies of Israel: A barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles come streaking in. A flurry of Israeli defensive interceptors rise to knock out most, but not all, of the incoming volley.

One key question is how long each side can keep up. The answer may affect how long the conflict could last.

Israeli intelligence officials estimated that Iran had about 2,000 missiles capable of traveling 1,200 miles to hit Israel, but a significant fraction was destroyed the moment Israel’s covert operatives in Iran and its fighter jets launched a surprise attack early Friday, kicking off the conflict.

Since then, Israeli military officials say that Iran has launched roughly 400 missiles from its remaining stockpile and Israeli strikes have eliminated 120, or one-third, of Iran’s missile launchers. Moreover, Israeli officials announced Monday that they had attained air superiority over Tehran ahead of schedule, meaning they could further limit the Iranian forces’ ability to carry out launches.

Already, the intensity of Iran’s barrages appear to be sharply dropping. After firing more than 150 missiles on the first night of the conflict, Friday, Iran fired a barrage of just 10 on Tuesday afternoon.

“Iran has to make a very, very difficult calculation, because they have a limited amount of missiles, and considering the rate of fire, they cannot replenish in real time,” said Fabian Hinz, a military analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Hinz noted that even the 150 missiles fired Friday night were less than the 200 Iran fired at Israel in October in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

Even so, Israeli analysts caution that more than half of Iran’s arsenal remains intact, and an unknown quantity of missiles may be hidden in underground depots.

And while Israel has significantly degraded Iran’s attack capabilities, mounting a defense has been costly for Israel. The Marker, a leading Israeli financial newspaper, reported that missile defense costs Israel as much as 1 billion shekels, or roughly $285 million, a night.

As a result, observers say, a long war of attrition between Israel and Iran may not be possible — at least at the current intensity.

Without resupplies from the United States or greater involvement by U.S. forces, some assessments project Israel can maintain its missile defense for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, said an individual briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, adding that as early as later this week, Israel’s systems may only be able to intercept a smaller proportion of missiles because of a need to ration defensive munitions. “They will need to select what they want to intercept,” said the individual, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. “The system is already overwhelmed.”

Tal Inbar, an Israeli missile expert affiliated with the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance in Virginia, noted that in 2014, Israel sought a ceasefire with Hamas days before it ran out of air defense interceptors. The level of interceptor stocks is a highly sensitive subject in Israel, but “it could be a factor in a ceasefire” this time as well, Inbar said.

Israel employs a multilayered air defense system, consisting of its famous Iron Dome, which intercepts lower-altitude rockets; the David’s Sling and Arrow systems; and expensive Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems delivered from the United States.

Inbar said a problem for Israel is that it largely relies on the relatively expensive Arrow system, which fires missiles that cost $3 million each, to counter attacks from Iran. While inexpensive and mass-produced Iron Dome interceptors are useful against rudimentary rockets fired by Hamas, the Iron Dome is as ineffective as “shooting a 9-millimeter pistol” at heavy Iranian missiles that hurtle through the outer atmosphere at several times the speed of sound, Inbar said.

On Friday night, Israeli air defenses failed to stop Iranian missiles that narrowly missed the headquarters of the Israel Defense Forces but slammed into central Tel Aviv. On Sunday night, an Iranian missile took a major oil refinery near Haifa offline.

And on Tuesday morning, videos filmed from nearby and posted on social media, which The Post verified, showed four impacts from Iranian missiles in the vicinity of Israel’s intelligence headquarters, north of Tel Aviv. None of the four appeared to strike Mossad headquarters, landing hundreds of meters away, but one impacted inside Camp Moshe Dayan, a nearby site that reportedly hosts Israel’s military intelligence headquarters and Unit 8200, the country’s premier signals intelligence unit.

Iran’s state media reported claims made by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that it successfully killed Israeli intelligence and military officials, but those claims could be confirmed. The IDF did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

As of Tuesday, the Israeli government said that only 35 out of 400 missiles fired by Iran made impact — an interception success rate of more than 90 percent. Twenty-four civilians have been killed, with more than 600 injured, the government said.

Iranian authorities said that 224 people had been killed by Israeli strikes as of Sunday, the most recent figures available. They did not differentiate between military and civilian casualties. In several cases, Israeli missiles and drones have struck densely packed apartment buildings to kill Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists in their homes. On Monday, Israel also struck the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcaster after Defense Minister Israel Katz pledged that “the mouthpiece of Iranian propaganda” would “disappear.” After the strike, the Israel Defense Forces said it had targeted an Iranian military “communication center” but did not offer evidence of a military presence at the location.

Jim Lamson, a former intelligence analyst focused on Iranian munitions and now a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said Iran’s missile capabilities will continue to decline because Israel is now targeting its production facilities.

“Assuming their regime doesn’t change, or assuming they don’t agree to give up their missiles as part of a ceasefire, they’re going to have a huge problem reconstituting their ballistic missile forces,” Lamson said. “That is going to be a big result of how much Israel is able to damage and destroy their production facilities for missiles.”

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