this post was submitted on 04 Feb 2025
54 points (100.0% liked)

Ask Lemmygrad

881 readers
8 users here now

A place to ask questions of Lemmygrad's best and brightest

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] maodun@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 6 days ago (3 children)

do you have any names of said analysts? this is the second time I've heard this "demographic decline" point* from non-lemmygrad users.

  • this point sounds dubious/bogus because "demographic decline" is vague enough phrasing that makes it seem like slowing population growth means actual net loss in population.
[–] Sceptique@leminal.space 2 points 5 days ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

"National Economy – 10.Total Population Went down and Urbanization Rate Continued to Grow (31 December 2024)". www.stats.gov.cn. National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC). 17 January 2025. Retrieved 17 January 2025.

net loss but natality increase in 2024

It seems like robust assertion to me. For the final analysist I'm no expert in chinese questions.

[–] Sceptique@leminal.space 2 points 5 days ago

Ok i've found something on one of my national media, 2023.

For context "lefigaro" is a right wing conservative french paper. It's interviewing PA Donnet.

Pierre-Antoine Donnet is a experimented journalist with significant knowledge and experience with China since ~1980 (he was not happy with the Tibet events around 1985 and was present physicaly here for the Agence France Presse, the primary main source of most mainstream french media - independant medias have their own investigations). He's been cited twice on mediapart (independant leftist journal very respected here) on the topic.

He says basically:

  • China population declined officially in 2022, and "it started before despite the official source" as part of the source of the problem
  • PIB growth lower than targets and historical values, as a symptome of vicious circle
  • Some talk about the CCP internal conflict

I guess he's the primary source, but I don't want to buy his book to give you a summary :D

[–] Sceptique@leminal.space 2 points 5 days ago

I'll see if I can find my source back just in case we can get something more specific. From memory it was about China going back under 1 billion people over the next 50-100 years or something