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‘No Republican party’ in US today, says anti-Trump conservative judge
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2023
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politics
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For that reason?
That's the reason?
I think the real reason is that the people in power keep touting this idea of only two distinct parties. Having only two parties means you have only two directions to go. Which is destined for extremism.
The FPTP voting system reinforces that. Any third party is just going to be a spoiler for one of the majors without voting system reform.
This is the correct answer. Third parties are rarely viable in first-past-the-post systems. More info on Duverger's Law here.
If we had more viable parties it would be much harder to do regulatory capture and corrupt every party, and even if that happened new viable ones could spring up at any time. We might actually get candidates that represent diverse political opinions. With more parties one party would be unlikely to have a majority or supermajority, and our representatives would have to work together and form coalitions to get anything done. Politics wouldn't be a team sport about defeating the other side, it would be about shared goals and constructive legislation. Candidates would want to appeal to voters who they might be the second or third choice for, meaning scapegoating, vilifying and othering segments of society would be a losing strategy. Ranked choice voting has few downsides for anyone but those who want a corrupt system they can capture and a society they can divide.
doesn't "duverger's law" only exist in the US? I think there's credible evidence that just reforming the electoral college to a proportional vote system would reduce the "two party effect" in the US.
The electoral college has hardly anything to do with the party system in the US because it's only used for presidential elections. If a third party was viable in FPTP then we should see a much larger share of them in Congress - especially the House - given the relatively small constituency of each representative and the large number of representatives.
No, Duverger’s law refers to the tendency of places that use first-past-the-post voting to result in a 2-party system. This is not unique to the US. More info is in the above link, it's worth your time.
My understanding is that the electoral college distorts the voting power of individuals by giving empty states more voting power than they should have (electors are based on number of house and senate members), and also because those state elections are usually first-past the post winner-take-all, 51% wins all the electors, (except for Nebraska and Maine, which have multiple districts with multiple electors that can be split, but are still first-past-the-post.)
If you mean that replacing first-past-the-post winner-take-all elections with a different voting system that can yield proportional representation will lead to more viable candidates/parties, then that's exactly the same thing Duverger's law is saying. You can't have proportional representation with first-past-the-post elections.
Lots of things reinforce it, the parties having a stranglehold on primaries and the media buyouts are also a major factor.
Actually, it's destined for a centrist corrupt government. The recent "extremism" is a reaction to how upset people are at the corruption, corporate welfare and blatant monopolies that run our country.
When things get bad people look towards the extremes. That's what we're seeing now. Things aren't good, they haven't been for a while. Populism and fascism rise during bad times. Look at what happened during the great depression and lead up to WW2. America could of easily slipped into a fascist Nazi style state. Thankfully we got the greatest president the country has ever seen instead.
Except the two party system pits two opposing sides against each other, inevitably leading to them pointing fingers at each other to rile their base and get votes. The extremism comes from frustration, yes, but it is stoked by the "us vs them" mentality that politicians abuse to trick their constituents into voting for them instead of "the other guy".
Right wing extremism is a global problem and is manifesting even in parliamentary multi-party systems, though. All they need is a scapegoat to rally around and they're good to go. Look at anti-immigrant movements in Europe as an example.
Fighting about things is going to happen in any political system.
Just because something exists doesn't mean it exists in the same way. Yes, there is finger pointing and extremism, but not in the same way as the US. And in many situations they've devolved into two parties bickering, while any other parties are just coalition bait. The UK is a prime example of that.
That reads a little funny, doesn't it...
I hope not. FDR did a lot of great things, but he was also a racist who didn't give the same benefits to non-white people as white people and, of course, was responsible for the shameful Japanese-American concentration camps.
If that's the greatest president, we have never had any hope.
Objectively, almost every president is a piece of shit and you need to judge them by the merits of their time. Almost every white dude alive in America was a racist shit bag by today's standards. FDR accomplished a ton, and it was all for the common man. Please, tell me who you think was a better president?
That. And when he caught fascists scheming in the Republican party. Instead of investigating and rooting them out. He merely threatened to do it if they blocked his legislation. So in the short term he got his legislation through. And in the long term got it gutted and neutered, saddling us with a now fully fascist Republican party. Thanks FDR.
He did some short sighted good. But that posturing and playing fast and loose screwed us all over.
Go back a few years. Circa 1960, the two parties had both Liberal and Conservative wings. There was no shame in a pol voting with the other party.
You need a multi party system like a lot of countries round the world. No clear winner = who can quickly form the larges coalition. It usually boils down to two main parties with a lot of also-ran's.
Over here we even have The Monster Raving Loony pary!
Both the democratic and republican party are several smaller parties tied together into two disgusting rat king. If one of them disappear today there will be an instant split of the surviving party into two new rat kings. The collapse isn't what they fear. They fear that the Overton window would move left.
And even a big move to the left would still leave us leaning right.
I think it’s very clear that the republicans in government are moving far right, but the electorate in general is steadily moving left.
https://archive.ph/3Ydkn
And according to voter data. Gen z is very progressive especially on policy:
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/The-Exit-Polls.pdf?x91208
In 15-20 years nearly half of all boomers will be dead. The current gop can’t win a single national popular vote. Without half these boomers, they will collapse or move left. And the Overton window will shift considerably left. And with Europe moving right in a lot of counties, I’d say it wouldn’t be surprising to see the US as left as Europe in a shot time.
Also: Europe is not as left leaning as people tend to think. Aside from trains and healthcare they’re not all the left wing. And it is moving right. I’m an Italian citizen and I see it happening in Italy, and many other counties.
Italy didn't really grapple with the fascist movement and cultural ties to religious dogma very well. It's a pretty conservative, traditionalist society. Like the American South, except Catholic.
As an outsider, when we think of "Europe" as left-wing it's because of the Nordic countries and major cities like Paris and London and Berlin, not Southern or Eastern Europe.
Both our parties are pretty far right talking about economics. Republicans are going full authoritarian/fascist. While Democrats grip on social democracy are becoming tenuous.
This analysis comforts me, but I heard a conflicting anecdote that suggested gen z was starting to lean more right (culturally right). I have no data to back that up, but thinking about that risk makes me not want to be complacent. 2016 still looms large in my head
Or worse, leaning up or down. We might all become textbook examples of anger prisoners.
He's got a point. The Republican party is fundamentally not healthy at all.
Yes, but the framing of it reads like the Democratic party being too powerful is the worst possible outcome, rather than the Republican party destroying society.
Ding ding ding
It's honestly impressive how accurate and succinct that part of his analysis is. I actually do agree that the long-term viability of the establishment GOP could be in serious trouble, and that the outcome a few years hence, of the Democrats as the only viable political party in Washington, would be a big problem for several different reasons. And, I think this is literally the first time I've heard that fairly serious topic being raised anywhere in the media.
But, our democracy is facing another slightly more pressing and short-term problem at the moment...
Nonsense. It's very unlikely that a party with members as diverse politically as Joe Manchin and AOC would form a monolithic power block in the absence of the GOP. It's far more likely that the Democratic party would fragment.
They could. Actually having the party fragment would be among the best options; the AOC wing is pretty tiny right now, and either switching to a non-ridiculous non-FPTP voting system, or fragmenting the party, would position it to actually be able to gain some traction.
One worse way it could shake out is the Democratic primaries become the main event (loosely divided between a progressive wing and an establishment wing). A lot of the establishment people who run the system would actually like that better, because the primaries don't have to operate as democratically as the general elections, and a lot of people would still "have to" vote for the Democrats, so in practice it would be a small minority progressive wing within a largely-establishment party. Pretty similar to now except with more corruption. Like I say, I think there are a lot of problems with that outcome.
For now. What will the Democratic party look like in ten years without a decent opposition party?
Either the Republican party will change its ways or a new party will take their place. Or they won't change their ways and enough will (stupidly) give them the benefit of a doubt because they are tired of the Democrats.
It'll be the latter. The US hasn't had a legitimate 3rd party since the Whigs in the 1850s
I don't remember hearing this grief when it was the Democratic party in disarray (mainly during Dubya's time in office). As always with republicans, something isn't a problem until it directly affects them.
party systems come and go. ours is almost over, and the republican party's death will be the cause