this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2023
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I don't think 99.9% of people care about the extra depth of Lemmy, or anything else like this. In fact the extra layer of complexity makes me think nothing like Lemmy will replace Reddit because people don't want to put in the extra effort to learn about instances and federation.
I'll be shocked if any instance hits a million people in the next few years
To a "normal" user, a Lemmy (or any federated) instance is just another Reddit-like site.
If a user signs up and see content in their feed, why do they need to care about federation?
The federated system gives "normal" users the content they want, and "technical" users the ability to self-host and connect to other federated servers.
I think a handful of popular federated instances will see the majority of Reddit emigrants who don't need/care to know about how federation works.
I mean yeah, it looks to be mostly that way with Lemmy.World
Any instance hitting one million is unlikely, on the mere grounds of trying to make one super instance is kind of the opposite of the goal of federation. The winning would be reaching a million members between all instances.