this post was submitted on 19 May 2025
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Or perhaps the end of the beginning, if you're a little more pessimistic.


Image is from this Bloomberg article, from which I also gathered some of the information used in the preamble.


While Trump was off in the Middle East in an incompetent attempt to solve a geopolitical and humanitarian crisis, China has been doing something much more productive.

Chinese officials, including Xi Jinping, had a summit with CELAC (a community of 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries). There, he promised investment, various declarations of friendship, and visa-free entry for 30 days for citizens of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Uruguay. Lula signed over 30 agreements with China. Colombia is joining the New Development Bank and hopes to gain the money for a 120-kilometer railway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific coasts as an alternative route to the Panama Canal. Even Argentina, ruled by arch-libertarian and arch-dipshit (but I repeat myself) Milei, was uncharacteristically polite with China as he secured a currency swap renewal to shore up their international reserves.

It wouldn't really be correct to say that Latin America is "siding with China over the US" - leaders in the region will continue to make many deals with America for the foreseeable future, and even Trump's bizarre economic strongman routine won't make them break off economic and diplomatic relations. What's significant here is that despite increasing American pressure for those leaders to break off all ties with China, few appear to be listening - and given that China is perhaps the most important economy on the planet right now, that is a very predictable outcome.

As the current American empire takes actions to try and avoid their doom, those very actions only guarantee it. As Latin America grows ever more interconnected with China and continues to develop, America will grow ever more panicked and demanding, and this feedback loop will - eventually - result in the death of the Monroe Doctrine.


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] geikei@hexbear.net 5 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (2 children)

Make healthcare free, a basic universal job guarantee, decrease income/wealth inequality through taxes (which could reduce consumption by the top 10%) and spending targeted towards the bottom.

Healthcare access, affordability and quality is constantly and consistently improving for the average Chinese person and is comfortably better than any remotely comparable country in income/wealth per capita. People should understand that you cant magically get the left end of the income distribution in a middle income country to attain welfare outcomes of a high income socdems country’s middle class with redistribution policy. Its not neoliberalism to say that they will get there even under a socialist government by YoY progress relative to the rate of the country's development. China even now after all this absurd growth is still lagging the US or advanced European countries in GDP per capita (PPP or not) compared to how the USSR and other AES was positioned for most of the cold war. (40-60% for China vs 60-80% or above for the USSR in PPP terms). Even if China went full Soviet right now its welfare state redistributionary policies would be weaker for the average person compared to euro social democracies than the USSR's were compared to its contemporary social democracies.

Also fact is that Inequality in China HAS been consistently dropping for a decade+ now. Income inequality specificaly. And in China more so than in other countries inequality figures and changes ( as well as welfare access and quality) is a math problem driven by the rural-urban divide and rate of urbanisation. Inequality surged in the reform era as commercial opportunities exploded in urban China. The urban/rural income ratio was on a fast upward trend. As urbanization passed the 50% mark, China suppressed continued population growth in first-tier cities, pushing growth into second-and third-tier cities, thus evening out economic discrepancies between provinces. Since 2010, China’s Gini coefficient has been steadily falling. At around the same time, as the countryside emptied out, farm consolidation and mechanization resulted in rural incomes outgrowing urban incomes

During the GFC China was like was only 48% urbanized (versus 65% today). Would China have been better off focusing on building out a nordic level safety net? Did the neolib CPC not want better healthcare for the masses and instead for whatever reason diverted resources to corrupt and inefficient state-owned construction companies? Of course not, its obvious that urbanization and massive infastructure building would achieve much more bang for the buck regarding welfare outcomes given just how rural China still was than trying to build an advanced social safety net at like 6k GDP per capita. Urban disposable income was over three times rural levels in 2008. No amount of redistribution could ever give households more spending power and better welfare outcomes than focusing in turning rural workers into urban ones and upgrading infastructure in rural and urban areas alike. And again China’s 65% urbanization today is where Japan, the EU and South Korea were in 1962, 1973 and 1985, respectively. Still ways to go . The welfare outcome juice left in urbanization and investment and infasrtucture building is still where the most potential is. China diverted most of its capital to manufacturing and infrastructure rather than welfare programs over the last 10-15 years not because they didnt want better welfare outcomes for households for but because that was and is still the best way to achieve them. And no neither China nor any other country at a similar level of development had and has enough capital, money and labour to focus on both these redistributive approches at remotely to the same degree

Also over the past two decades, investment as a percentage of GDP has been far higher in inland provinces. Only one of the top ten fastest-growing provinces in the past decade (Fujian) has been coastal and none in the past two decades. So yeah if you’re in the 40-50% of China that is fully developed, the social safety net is on par with advanced nations. If you’re not, achieving modern social safety net merely a function of time regarding urbanization, development of lower tier cities and Houku reform and you are banking on current trajectories and the CPC getting you there. But it will happen in the controled way CPC has handled it till now. And to touch on that. Hukou reform, or lack thereof, is also a favorite hobby for China contrarians. With the huge gap in incomes and social services and nets between rural and urban china, if you just could go from a rural bumfuck town to Shanghai expecting access to all that it would have been a disaster for Chinese development. The costs of unregulated population concentration of hundreds of millions in megacities and the need for the walfare state to accomodate that in the span of 1-2 decades are rarely addressed. The hukou system has helped China avoid the slums that plague cities across the Global South. Everything you see in Brazil, Indonesia, India etc would have been an order of magnitude worse if there wasnt the oh so unfair and anti-socialist Hukou system in place. Through sequenced hukou reform, China has grown “medium-sized” cities – those with populations between 2 and 6 million – while keeping a lid on megacities with populations over 15 million.

So in making sense of Chinese "welfare" focus and policies you have to recognize that if you can get bigger increases in income and welfare outcomes by funding infrastructure and keeping shit cheap (forcufully price wise or with supply & productivity rump up) than with redistribution from a thin top layer of high income tax payers the former is the more efficient welfare policy choice and thats the position China has been and is still. Per capita production expansion does far more than focusing on social safety net redistribution at China’s development level. Welfare redistribution can ease some hardships but it won’t integrate poorer regions and lower classes of a billion people into productive economic activity and high standards of living and ultimately you cannot support consumption of what you don’t make. If the pie isn’t big enough splitting it creatively won’t fill everyone. The vast majority of the country that would most benefit from income and wealth transfers need transfers of production factors first, not transfers of consumption. So right now China is engaging in extensive redistribution from the rich to the poor. That redistribution comes in the form of state owned financial system taking capital gains from growth to try to build those production factors in the places where most low income people are. All the infastructure China has been purring money to without end in EVERY province and all the production and manufacturing power and "oversupply" keeping goods and services cheap IS redistributionary welfare policy, a much more effective one for China's strengths and levels of development at this point with much higher multipliers. It is the reason the average Chinese has seen their welfare get better much more so than any worker in any developing country. Its one of the more pro-social redistributive-oriented economic regimes the world has seen. Its pre-distributional vs post-distributional welfare economics. In simple terms its capex socialism.

HSR alone for example is one of the biggest walfare projects of modern times in the world. Chinese people at this point have access to travel of any length more expansively AND affordably than pretty much any other population in countries of any significant size. Distributed urban development (that evens out welfare outcomes) through HSR buildout is a complete re-engineering of physical China on a level that makes economistic arguments irrelevant.

What ppl looking for lessons on socialist construction, especially in developing countries should take away from China is that the government can intervene in a variety of ways to ensure goods and services stay cheap and to equalize welfare outcomes and not necessary to rely mostly on welfare payments and transfers and in fact depending on a country's strengths and level of development its not even the right choice. Prioritizing money & tax redistribution only makes sense when you have a rich and large enough middle and upper class relative to the rest of the population. And even still direct welfare spending HAS increased over the last decade as a % of GDP in almost every sector (education, healthcare). It pretty much doubled for healthcare and its now on the lower end of european countries. Who's to say that in 10-15 years China wouldnt overtake in healthcare spending european social democracies in their peak?

Graphs time

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 6 points 3 weeks ago

You are using World Bank’s Gini Coefficient for China, which used consumption data instead of income data for its calculation for certain developing countries including China. This skews the metric towards the lower end. For the developed countries, income data were used, and appeared higher in comparison.

The National Bureau of Statistics have a more complete dataset that relies on the income distribution and came up with more accurate reflection of wealth inequality:

Blue = Gini coefficient (World Bank)
Orange = Gini coefficient (National Bureau of Statistics, PRC)

Income Gini coefficient from the National Bureau of Statistics:

Note that data points after 2022 are missing from the graph, and the data is 0.465 for both 2023 and 2024.

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 4 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

We will see if they change anything in 15 years. Will China have universal Healthcare by then? Or a right to employment program which puts pressure on the private sector to improve their own working conditions (at the least)? I feel like they'll put it off for yet another 15 years after that. But maybe they'll wow me. Hopefully people aren't working 60-70 hrs a week retiring at 63 in the year 2060.

Such a shame we have no example of an alternate country of similar size doing similar policies. Eg. India is a country which has neither built up productive forces nor has any welfare for the majority.

Edit: I think within India, Kerala is a decent example, though not a perfect comparison, it has limited autonomy, has very low fiscal space, there have been times when liberals (who were notoriously corrupt) were in power. But still, they have made good use of what they have. People have healthcare, education, many welfare schemes all while building infrastructure. Some would say it's because they have a large diaspora which brings in money from abroad, that's true, but how you make use of that is also important.