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So I am pretty sure that error is happening because certbot can’t retrieve the certificate which is coming from that API no matter what type of challenge you are using (this is what ACME is).
Now when you say you are blocking inbound traffic, have you made an exception for established outbound session return traffic? If not then you your inbound rule will block all traffic because without that exception the explicit deny will typically override any session/stateful based rules your firewall might have by default (this applies to most firewall vendors I have run into).
That said, I’m not sure what your goal is but blocking outbound traffic to those ASN might be more effective for you anyway because your firewall should already be dropping any inbound traffic that isn’t otherwise allowed so I’m not sure blocking inbound traffic really gains you anything but I’m just guessing. Hope that all makes sense!
Well, blocking inbound traffic from these countires is part of my firewall. I have some services that are exposed on the internet, but I don't want the whole world to hammer these services, scrape them and potentially exploit vulnerabilities on them. I know a VPN would be more effective here, but that's not an option for every service.
Firewalls are typically built using 'in' rules, but it's not referring to 'wan > lan' but rather if the rule is processed on the ingress of the firewall or the egress.
Stateful firewalls sessions are always going to allow responses, the old request that someone needs a rule 'both directions' is something of a running joke at this point honestly.
A pcap would explain a lot, the fact that the error cites a specific domain does sound like an outbound attempt, but if it was a specifically inbound region block that wouldn't add up.