My take done short and lossy: the US just wants Cuba and Venezuela to become like China. That should give us hope.

The medium version is that so long as Cuba doesn't lose control of the commanding heights of the economy and the government isn't controlled by private interests, they'll be fine. It's more dangerous having compradors and spies more integrated into your economy, but the conditions in Cuba don't allow for independence. It's very difficult for any major manufacturer to get goods there, and the US blockade makes it economically untenable. Cuba can't say no to the US if the US is willing to starve all of the people there.