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I'd say we haven't so much turned around as veered off to skirt along the edge until we're about to hit the next one. There is a real chance we're going to end up not being able to diverge and actually go over the edge. If it when that will happen is impossible to predict before it's too late though.
You're free to hold your own model, but I'd question some of yours.
That's a different edge in a different direction. There's certainly an element of inertia to large, extinction level events, but not all extinction level events share that same inertia. As an example, nuclear war and climate change don't share the same path of humanities destruction.
Humanity is pretty good and being able to predict things which will negatively effect us. We're just not great at stopping doing those things that cause those negative things.
Not nuclear, but don't underestimate how much greenhouse gases have been released by blowing up oil refineries in recent wars. I'm not saying it's the same path, but they are connected.
True, but not at convincing others to stop doing it, or accurately predicting whether we can convince enough people in time to avert disaster.