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British public more likely to prefer Count Binface wins Clacton by-election than Nigel Farage
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this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2026
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No because it's percentage of the vote not quantity of votes.
All sorts of things could happen, perhaps the poor turn out in the last by-election was because people assumed he was a shoe in so didn't bother to vote. Perhaps people forgot (it seems like the sort of place where voter apathy is quite high). Perhaps people will be more likely to vote in this election because it seems funny. Perhaps he has really pissed off a lot of his voters due to his complete absenteeism from the position.
All of these possibilities don't change the fact that your assumption about the "same showing" is unrealistic. You can't have the same showing because the candidates previously standing are not, so where do you allocate their votes? Do you think none of the 116 people who voted UKIP (yes, they still existed in 2024!) might vote Farage over Binface? What about a few of the 12,820 people who voted Conservative? Any of them might align better with Farage policies than "nationalise Adele"?
If you literally have the same showing you'll have 21,225 votes for Farage, zero votes for any other candidate, and Farage will win with 100% of the vote.
There are a few far-fetched ways in which Binface could win. It's possible - I don't dispute that - but unlikely. My point, though, was about your argument based on the "same showing".
Ah I see, so you've divided the world into your enemies and your allies and you think that people who you previously saw as your enemy will still be your enemy. The thing to remember is they don't know you exist, nor do they care about what you're thinking.
In the last election they might have voted for the conservatives because they wanted the conservatives to be in charge. A vote for the conservatives is also a vote against Farage, so perhaps their primary motivation is they don't want Reform and will vote for whatever least worst option is presented in order to not get Reform. In the last election that was a Conservative candidate, in this election that's not an option, so it's binface or Farage, and if they're voting against him then literally anything will be better.
You've also completely disregarded my point that his antics over the last 2 years may very well have pissed quite a lot of his original voters off.
Let me remind you of the words you are trying to defend:
What "same showing" are you talking about? I think by this point it's clear you meant something other than what you said. Since my issue was with what you said, not whatever you meant to say, it's better we leave it here.