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AGI, nanobots, fully autonomous self driving cars, cancer cures and aging cures, significant life extension, etc are all a long way off. Decades.

I’m not saying they’ll never happen, of course, just that we’re a long time away from them. I see way too many people thinking that these things are around the corner, and it makes me sad.

With regards to life extension especially (since i see a looooot of people think they personally will get to live forever), the odds of biotech and medicine advancing in our lifetimes to the extent that it facilitates biological immortality and indefinitely extended lifespans is slim to none at best. Go ask the actual experts if you don’t believe me.

The most we will see in our lifetimes is increased HEALTHspan, and tbh even that is iffy since we don’t even know if we will get even that.

In my opinion the first generations to experience significantly extended lifespans and age reversal probably haven’t been born yet. That’s how long i think it’s going to take.

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Cancer cures are coming thick and fast.

The HPC vaccine for instance has meant that anyone under about 25 in my country has an insanely low chance of getting cervical cancer and reduced risk of some other cancers.

More generally, in the past 40 years cancer ten year survival rates have doubled.

I think people still make the mistake of thinking of cancer like it's a single condition. There are loads of different types of cancers, so loads of different 'cancer cures' are needed.

this post was submitted on 27 Aug 2023
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