this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2026
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The only reason Chinese or Russian ships would need to go anywhere near Greenland is to deliver to north east North America, which would by definition be welcome travel. Arctic route between Asia and Europe goes through Russian waters. Closer and friendlier to China, and Chinese ships dominate world, and can pick up goods from rest of Asia.
Right, they don't need it for themselves. USA and any other power would use it for a convenient bit of force projection, preventing 3rd parties from consolidating power outside of their block. So, say Venezuela wanted to ship stuff to the Philippines. Around South America is dangerous, Panama can be expensive, but arctic is more and more open and quick, so theoretically these example countries could find some mutually profitable stuff to bring back and forth to each other.
US can get a tax or otherwise frustrate any deals if they control that shipping lane. The Alaska/Russia choke point is contested and I'm not sure who has better control on that area.
US has seized control of Panama canal this year too. The ice to the north of Greenland has never been clear (yet). A path through Canadian waters opens up for 1 month or so per year. Russia coast clears out more often, and for about 2 months. Venezuela to Asia definitely wants to use Panama canal next door. It's just slightly longer through cape horn than Canada passage.
Yeah global warming.
Canadian waters still are a shorter path that will be ice free longer.
right but that also requires us to maintain dominance in those areas... less likely if our ally denmark loses their kingdom of greemland.